Simulation and prediction of land use in the High Standard Grain Area of Hebi City
Jiemei TIAN1(), Jie CHEN2()
1. School of Public Administration, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China 2. School of Water Conservancy and Environment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
In the period of “13th Five-Year Plan”, the national planning attaches great importance to the implementation of construction of the high standard grain area. As one of the high standard grain areas in Henan Province, Hebi City shoulders the burden of ensuring food security. That is why it is of practical significance to study the simulation and prediction of land use in Hebi City in the future. With the use of CA-Markov model and on the basis of the historical process of the coordinated development of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization of Henan Province, the prediction can be divided into two scenarios for the simulation and prediction of land use according to the analysis of the characteristics of land use in Hebi city in the past 20 years. The results can show that the Kappa index of Hebi City in 2013 was about 0.898, which means that the fitting effect is the best, and that the prediction results of CA-Markov model can achieve good fitting effect. Based on comparative analysis of the quantity, the space and the landscape index of Hebi City, it is held that the scenario II can be more in line with the demand of the Central Plains Economic Area and the industrial development as well as with the “green development” in the High Standard Grain Area’s ecological and environmental protection grounds. What’s more, it is in accordance with the planning of Hebi City, the patch shape is more regular, the plaque agglomeration degree is high, the internal continuity is strong, landscape fragmentation degree is low, and the landscape distribution is uniform, thus exhibiting obvious advantages. The authors hold that, in the future, the government should adhere to scenario II model for the development of the construction of the High Standard Grain Area so that the land can realize sustainable development.
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