In this study, the authors used TM remote sensing images in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and OLI remote sensing image in 2015 as data sources, classified the image by decision tree method based on CART (classification and regression tree)to obtain the land use information of Lucheng City of Shanxi Province and did accuracy assessment. Then the dynamic change of land use was analyzed by such means as the extent of land use change, the single land use dynamics, and the integrated index of land use change degree. In addition, the GM(1, 1) model was built using first four data and was verified by the actual data in 2015 . At last, the land use of Lucheng City in 2020 was predicted by using the GM (1,1) model. According to the results obtained, the forest area and the residential area increased, the agriculture area and the unused land area decreased, and the water area remained about the same in the 20 years from 1995 to 2015 in Lucheng City; the development degree achieved the medium level and the land use structure remained about the same. In 2020, the predicted value of agriculture area in Lucheng City will be 22 759.32 hm 2 and the predicted value of residential area will be 8 854.76 hm 2.
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2018, Vol. 30 
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