海南岛植被覆盖变化驱动因子及相对作用评价

doi:10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.01.21

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为了解海南岛植被覆盖变化影响因子,利用MODIS归一化植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)数据,采用残差分析法、趋势分析法和相对作用分析法对海南岛2001—2015年间植被覆盖变化特征进行研究,定量分析了气候变化和人类活动对海南岛植被覆盖变化的贡献。研究表明,2001—2015年间,海南岛植被总体呈现增加趋势,其增长速率为0.024/10 a,植被覆盖增加区域占全岛的77.77%,植被退化区域所占比例仅为22.23%。在植被改善区域,气候变化和人类活动的相对作用分别为31.04%和68.96%,其中相对作用大于50%的区域(即以人类活动为主)占整个植被改善区域的80.79%; 植被退化区域,气候变化和人类活动的相对作用分别为35.03%和64.97%,其中相对作用大于50%的区域(即以人类活动为主)占整个植被退化区域的75.59%。整体来看,气候变化对海南岛植被生长有促进作用,人类活动对海南岛地区植被的建设作用大于破坏作用。

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	罗红霞
	戴声佩
	李茂芬
	李玉萍
	郑倩
	胡盈盈

关键词 ：气候变化, 人类活动, 相对作用, 海南岛

Abstract：

Using MODIS normal difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2001 to 2015 and climate data acquired from 7 meteorological stations in Hainan Island, the authors analyzed vegetation variability under the influence of climate variations and human activities based on residual analysis method, unary trend curve regression model and relative role analysis method in Hainan Island. The results showed that NDVI observed by remote sensing (MODIS NDVI) increased over the past 15 years with a rate of 0.024 per ten years in Hainan Island. The proportions of increasing vegetation and decreasing vegetation areas were 77.77% and 22.23%, respectively. As identified by remote sensing observations in Hainan Island, the relative roles of climate changes and anthropogenic activities in vegetation increase areas were 31.04% and 68.96%, while the roles of climate variations and human activities in vegetation decrease areas were 35.03% and 64.97%, respectively, indicating that human activities played a major role in vegetation changes. The area of increased vegetation mainly influenced by human activities (relative role >50%) accounted for 80.79% of the whole increase vegetation area, which was associated with the large-scale rubber plantation in these areas. In contrast, the area of reduced vegetation mainly induced by human activities (relative role > 50%) accounted for 75.59% of the reduced vegetation regions, which may be induced by the increased urbanization and urban expansion in coastal regions. On the whole, climate changes could promote the vegetation growth, whereas human activities played a greater role in the vegetation increasing than in the vegetation decreasing.

Key words： climate changes human activities relative role Hainan Island

收稿日期: 2019-01-04 出版日期: 2020-03-14

TP79

基金资助:海南省自然科学基金面上项目“海南岛植被覆盖时空变化特性与响应机制研究”(编号: 417238);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“关联常规气象要素模拟我国热区水平面太阳总辐射的研究”(编号: 31601211);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“四川攀枝花及金沙江干热河谷资源环境特征与区域发展研究”(编号: 1630072019001)

作者简介: 罗红霞(1985-),女,硕士,助理研究员,主要从事生态环境遥感监测研究。Email: 120081008@163.com。

引用本文:

罗红霞, 戴声佩, 李茂芬, 李玉萍, 郑倩, 胡盈盈. 海南岛植被覆盖变化驱动因子及相对作用评价[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2020, 32(1): 154-161.
Hongxia LUO, Shengpei DAI, Maofen LI, Yuping LI, Qian ZHENG, Yingying HU. Relative roles of climate changes and human activities in vegetation variables in Hainan Island. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2020, 32(1): 154-161.

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https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.01.21 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2020/V32/I1/154

Fig.1 研究区域

Tab.1 各气候指标与NDVI的相关系数

Fig.2 主要气候指标与NDVI的空间相关性

植被变化	情景	Slope (NDVI_C)	Slope (NDVI_H)	气候变化的相对作用/%	人类活动的相对作用/%	说明
植被增加区	1	>0	>0	$C NDVI C NDVI + H NDVI$ ×100	$H NDVI C NDVI + H NDVI$ ×100	气候变化和人类活动共同作用导致植被覆盖增加
	2	>0	<0	100	0	气候变化导致植被覆盖增加
	3	<0	>0	0	100	人类活动导致植被覆盖增加
植被减少区	1	<0	<0	$C NDVI C NDVI + H NDVI$ ×100	$H NDVI C NDVI + H NDVI$ ×100	气候变化和人类活动共同作用导致植被覆盖减少
	2	<0	>0	100	0	气候变化导致植被覆盖减少
	3	>0	<0	0	100	人类活动导致植被覆盖减少

Tab.2 不同情景下气候变化和人类活动在植被覆盖变化过程中的相对作用分析法^①

Fig.3 海南岛2001—2015年植被覆盖变化趋势(气候变化和人类活动共同作用影响)

Tab.3 海南岛各市县植被增加和减少区域所占比例

Fig.4 海南岛2001—2015年气候变化和人类活动对植被覆盖变化影响

Fig.5 海南岛2001—2015年植被覆盖改善区气候变化和人类活动的相对作用

Fig.6 海南岛2001—2015年植被退化区气候变化和人类活动的相对作用

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