In this study, the authors used the CLUMondo model which can deeply describe the intensity of land and the land use data of 2010 and 2015 to simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the three different scenarios of “natural growth”, “economic development” and “land use optimization” in coastal cities of Guangxi in 2025. Some conclusions have been reached: The CLUMondo model can effectively simulate the development status and trajectory of land system in large-scale coastal areas; under the“natural growth” scenario, the intensive and effective use of land resources in coastal cities has been slower; under the “economic development” scenario, urban and rural construction land is growing rapidly and is closely related in space. There is a sharp contradiction between regional forest and cultivated land protection and industrial construction; under the “land use optimization” scenario, the pace of regional economic construction has gradually slowed down, and the construction of regional cities has formed a trend of concentration of resources to cities and towns and concentration of farmlands. The simulation results provide a certain reference for the future land use planning and related system formulation of coastal cities in Guangxi and even the whole country.
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