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国土资源遥感  2020, Vol. 32 Issue (4): 182-189    DOI: 10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.23
  技术应用 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
基于K-Means城市分类算法的夜光遥感电力消费估算
张莉1,2(), 谢亚楠1, 屈辰阳2,3, 汪鸣泉2,3, 常征2,3,4, 王茂华2,3()
1.上海大学特种光纤与光接入网重点实验室,特种光纤与先进通信国际合作联合实验室,上海先进通信与数据科学研究院,上海 201210
2.中国科学院上海高等研究院,上海碳数据与碳评估中心,上海 201210
3.中国科学院低碳转化科学与工程重点实验室,上海 201210
4.中国科学院洁净能源创新院,大连 116023
Estimation of electric power consumption using nighttime light remote sensing data based on K-Means city classification algorithm
ZHANG Li1,2(), XIE Yanan1, QU Chenyang2,3, WANG Mingquan2,3, CHANG Zheng2,3,4, WANG Maohua2,3()
1. Key Laboratory of Specialty Fiber Optics and Optical Access Networks, Joint International Research Laboratory of Specialty Fiber Optics and Advanced Communication, Shanghai Institute of Advanced Communication and Data Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201210, China
2. Shanghai Carbon Data Research Center, Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China
3. CAS Key Laboratory of Low-Coal Conversion Science and Engineering, Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Shanghai 201210, China
4. Dalian National Laboratory for Clean Energy, Dalian 116023, China
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摘要 

为了减小利用夜间灯光影像估算城市电力消费量时的误差,需要考虑样本地区的发展状况,在估算之前对样本进行分类。选取2015年中国大陆263个地级市的NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据对城市电力消费量进行估算。提出了基于灯光结构而非传统统计数据的K-Means城市分类算法。利用该方法将样本分为5类并估算电力消费量,与其他分类方法的估算结果相比可知: 该方法估算值的平均相对误差和均方根误差分别为32.02%和57.04,较不分类时分别减小25和3.39百分点; 估算中的高精度城市比例为53.99%,较不分类时增加了13.59百分点,且为所有方法中的最高比例; 相较不分类时的估算结果,有152个城市的估算误差有所降低。该方法性能与其他分类方法的最优性能相似。

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张莉
谢亚楠
屈辰阳
汪鸣泉
常征
王茂华
关键词 NPP/VIIRS电力消费量城市分类K-Means算法    
Abstract

In order to reduce the error in estimating urban electric power consumption by nighttime light images, it is necessary to consider the development status of sample areas and classify the samples before estimation. In this paper, the NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data from 263 prefecture-level cities in China’s mainland in 2015 were selected to estimate urban electric power consumption. A K-Means city classification method based on light structure rather than traditional statistical data is proposed. The authors used this method to divide the samples into 5 types and estimate the electric power consumption. A comparison of the estimated results with those from other classification methods shows the following regularity: The mean relative error and root mean square error of the estimated results are 32.02% and 57.04, decreasing by 25 and 3.39 percentage points compared with the estimated results without classification respectively. The proportion of high-precision cities in the estimation results is 53.99%, increasing by 13.59 percentage points compared with estimated result without classification, and is the highest proportion among values of all methods. Compared with the estimated results without classification, 152 cities have lower estimated errors. The performance of this method is similar to the optimal performance of other classification methods.

Key wordsNPP/VIIRS nighttime light data    electric power consumption    city classification    K-Means algorithm
收稿日期: 2020-01-06      出版日期: 2020-12-23
:  TP79  
基金资助:中国科学院洁净能源创新研究院合作基金项目“变革性洁净能源关键技术对我国碳排放达峰目标的贡献及其减排路径研究”(DNL180101);国家自然科学基金项目“面向低碳城市规划的碳排放评价方法研究”(51778601);国家重点研发计划项目“行业碳排放核算与效益成本评估模型研究”(2016YFA062603);国家重点研发计划项目“基于碳卫星数据的全球大气中CO2浓度估算与预测模型研究”(2016YFA062602);国家重点研发计划项目“世界主要国家碳排放因子研究”(2017YFA065300)
通讯作者: 王茂华
作者简介: 张 莉(1995-),女,硕士研究生,研究方向为卫星数据处理和城市电力消费模拟。Email:zhangli02@sari.ac.cn
引用本文:   
张莉, 谢亚楠, 屈辰阳, 汪鸣泉, 常征, 王茂华. 基于K-Means城市分类算法的夜光遥感电力消费估算[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2020, 32(4): 182-189.
ZHANG Li, XIE Yanan, QU Chenyang, WANG Mingquan, CHANG Zheng, WANG Maohua. Estimation of electric power consumption using nighttime light remote sensing data based on K-Means city classification algorithm. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2020, 32(4): 182-189.
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https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.23      或      https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2020/V32/I4/182
数据名称 数据描述 数据来源
NPP-VIIRS卫星夜间灯光影像 年数据,空间分辨率为15"(弧度) NOAA-NGDC(http: //ngdc.noaa.gov/viir)
全社会用电量 市辖区,亿kWh 《中国城市统计年鉴》
年末总人口 市辖区,全市,万人 《中国城市统计年鉴》
地区GDP 市辖区,全市,万元 《中国城市统计年鉴》
第一、二、三产业GDP比例 市辖区,全市,% 《中国城市统计年鉴》
常住人口城镇化率 各省份,城市,% 各省市统计年鉴
2015年中国地级市行政边界文件 .shp格式文件 中国科学院资源环境数据云平台(http: //www.resdc.cn/data.aspx?DATAID=201)
Tab.1  数据来源及简述
Fig.1  波士顿矩阵
绝对指标(阈值) 相对指标
(阈值=1)
第一类
城市
第二类
城市
第三类
城市
第四类
城市
城镇人口增长率(0.02) 相对城镇人口比例 26 81 121 35
市辖区人口增长率(0.04) 相对市辖区人口比例 15 14 93 141
市辖区GDP增长率(0.02) 相对市辖区GDP比例 15 57 51 140
市辖区第三产业GDP增长率(0.01) 相对市辖区第三产业GDP比例 15 49 56 143
  基于波士顿矩阵的城市分类结果
聚类方法 CP均值 CP标准差 SP均值 SP标准差
K-Means 0.031 0.000 0 0.18 0.000 4
K-Medois 0.032 0.000 0 0.17 0.007 9
FCM 0.031 0.000 1 0.17 0.025 2
GMM 0.057 0.000 7 0.16 0.021 3
Tab.3  CP与SP的均值与标准差
Fig.2  10次聚类的CP和SP值
Fig.3  聚类中心方差随个数变化
Fig.4  聚类中心特征分布
类别 个数 灯光分布特征 代表性城市
第一类城市 44 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1以下,城区灯光几乎很少 张掖、平凉、绥化、黑河
第二类城市 65 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e1之间,城区灯光基本明朗 鞍山、吉林、黄山、西宁
第三类城市 91 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e0之间,城区灯光基本明朗,和周边非城区的亮度差异明显 石家庄、徐州、北海、兰州
第四类城市 45 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e2之间,城区高亮度灯光较多,部分低亮度灯光分布于郊区 北京、天津、合肥、重庆
第五类城市 18 数量较少,城市化基本完成,几乎没有低亮度地区 上海、南京、无锡、舟山、福州、成都、深圳、珠海
Tab.4  K-Means城市分类结果
Fig.5  城市NTL与EPC的相关关系
Fig.6  5类城市的NTL与EPC的相关性
城市类型 城市个数 R/%
不分类 K-Means分类
第一类城市 44 57.49 44.05
第二类城市 65 44.64 45.17
第三类城市 91 48.10 41.96
第四类城市 45 35.17 33.05
第五类城市 18 18.50 15.22
合计/平均值 263 42.37 32.02
Tab.5  K-Means城市分类法与不分类时的EPC估算结果对比
估算方法 高精度 中精度 低精度
不分类 47.53 29.28 23.19
K-Means分类 53.99 26.99 19.01
Tab.6  K-Means城市分类法与不分类时的EPC估算精度对比
Di (-,-0.25] (-0.25,0] (0,0.25] (0.25,+)
比例/% 11.79 46.01 34.98 7.22
Tab.7  K-Means城市分类后与不分类时的EPC估算误差对比
分类方法 R/% RMSE 高精度/% 中精度/% 低精度/% D>0/%
不分类 42.37 59.04 47.53 29.28 23.19 -
经济分区 38.37 63.23 50.19 28.13 21.68 50.57
地理分区 34.05 53.16 52.47 28.13 19.40 52.09
人口规模 31.06 53.76 52.09 28.51 19.40 53.99
波士顿矩阵-城镇人口比例 32.62 57.61 51.34 30.41 18.25 56.27
波士顿矩阵-市辖区人口比例 32.03 59.20 53.99 27.37 18.64 58.55
波士顿矩阵-市辖区GDP比例 31.66 59.78 49.42 32.31 18.27 61.21
波士顿矩阵-市辖区第三产业GDP比例 32.13 58.09 50.95 31.56 17.49 55.13
K-Means算法 32.02 57.04 53.99 26.99 19.01 57.80
Tab.8  K-Means城市分类方法与传统分类方法的估算结果对比
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