A study of runoff scenario prediction in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River based on SWAT model
MA Xinping1,2(), WU Tao3, YU Yuyang2
1. College of Resources, Environment, History and Culture, Xianyang Normal University, Xianyang 712000, China 2. College of Equipment Management and UAV Engineering, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an 710126, China 3. College of Automation, Northwest Polytechnic University, Xi’an 710129, China
The main driving factors of runoff change are climate change and land use. In order to accurately predict the runoff change trend in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River in the future, the authors predicted runoff changes under the two land-use change modes based on SWAT model, weather generator BCC /RCG-WG and Ca-Markov model. The setting of land-use scenarios was based on the prediction results of Ca-Markov model. The results show that, in the future, the runoff in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River will show an obvious upward trend, and the increase rate of runoff under the scenario of increasing forest land is less than that in the natural ecological scenario, which may be related to the increase of ecological water demand caused by the increase of forest land. Therefore, the protection of water resources in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River is not feasible. Researchers should follow the natural growth law of vegetation, continue the current ecological protection policy, try to reduce man-made pollution and improve the ideological awareness of water conservation.
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MA Xinping, WU Tao, YU Yuyang. A study of runoff scenario prediction in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River based on SWAT model. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2021, 33(1): 174-182.
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2021, Vol. 33 
), 武涛3, 余玉洋2
