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    基于多源遥感的1995—2023年间色林错水域变化特征及淹没趋势分析

    Analyzing water area changes and inundation trends in Siling Co during 1995—2023 based on multi-source remote sensing

    • 摘要: 色林错作为西藏自治区第一大湖,近年来扩张趋势显著,对周边牧民活动、基础设施乃至生态环境均构成一定威胁。该文基于Landsat和GF系列光学卫星影像以及ERS-2,ICESat,CryoSat-2和ICESat-2等卫星测高数据,系统重建了1995—2023年间色林错湖泊面积、水位与水量变化的时间序列,通过Mann-Kendall趋势分析,划分湖泊面积变化的不同阶段并揭示各阶段的关键变化特征,并对淹没趋势及其影响进行初步判断。结果表明: ①在1995—2023年间,色林错水域面积增加了676.75 km2,年均扩张速率为24.17 km2/a; 水位上升了约13.32 m,年均上升速率为0.48 m/a; 水量增加了28.45 Gt,年均增长速率为1.02 Gt/a; ②1995—2023年间色林错可分为4个变化阶段,包括1995—2000年的波动增长期、2000—2011年的急速扩张期、2011—2017年的相对稳定期及2017—2023年的再次扩张期; ③波动增长期和急速扩张期的淹没区域主要集中在湖泊南北方向,相对平稳期淹没区无明显扩张,再次扩张期淹没区分布于湖泊东部; ④色林错水位持续上涨导致周边的淹没风险逐年提升,目前淹没高风险区主要集中在湖泊南岸,建议后续对湖南岸地区予以重点关注。

       

      Abstract: Siling Co, the largest lake in Xizang Autonomous Region, has expanded significantly in the past few years, threatening surrounding pastoral activities, infrastructures, and even the ecological environment. This study systematically reconstructed the time series of changes in the lake area, water level, and water volume of Siling Co from 1995 to 2023 using optical images from satellites Landsat and GF, as well as altimeter data from satellites ERS-2, ICEsat, Cryosat-2, and ICEsat-2. Through Mann-Kendall trend analysis, the study determined the stages of the lake area changes and revealed the key characteristics of various stages. Furthermore, it also made a preliminary judgement on the inundation trend and its impacts. The results indicate that from 1995 to 2023, Siling Co experienced an increase in water area of 676.75 km2 (with an annual average of 24.17 km2/a), a water level rise of approximately 13.32 m (with an annual average of 0.48 m/a), and a water volume growth of 28.45 Gt (with an annual average of 1.02 Gt/a). The changes in Siling Co from 1995 to 2023 can be divided into four stages: the fluctuating growth stage from 1995 to 2000, the rapid expansion stage from 2000 to 2011, the relatively stable stage from 2011 to 2017, and the re-expansion stage from 2017 to 2023. The inundated areas during the fluctuating growth and rapid expansion stages were primarily concentrated in the northern and southern parts of the lake. During the relatively stable stage, no significant expansion was observed in the inundated areas. In the re-expansion stage, the inundated areas were distributed in the eastern part of the lake. The continuous rise in the water level of Siling Co led to an annually increasing risk of surrounding inundation. Currently, the areas exposed to a high inundation risk are primarily concentrated along the south bank of the lake, which should be the focus in future monitoring and research.

       

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