Simulation and development mode suggestions of the spatial pattern of “ecology-agriculture-construction” land in Jiangsu Province
WU Yijie1,2(), KONG Xuesong1()
1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China 2. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
This study aims to assist Jiangsu Province in selecting the regional development modes suitable for its local conditions. To this end, this study identified the driving factors in the evolution of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province by comprehensively using three regression methods (i.e., Logistic, Auto-Logistic, and SBS-Logistic). Then, this study simulated the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province in 2030 under four scenarios using the Markov-CLUES model. The results are as follows. ①The accuracy of the three regression methods was in the order of Auto-Logistic > SBS-Logistic > Logistic. The ROC values of the three land use types obtained using the Auto-Logistic regression method were all over 0.75. The Markov-CLUES model performed well in the verification simulation of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province during 2005—2018, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.758 according to the accuracy evaluation. ②The rapid development in the “Three Circles” and “Four Lines” areas will be guaranteed under the scenario of natural growth in 2030. However, some rivers will narrow, threatening food security and leading to weak development sustainability. For the scenario of ecological protection, the environment of river canals and areas surrounding lakes will be greatly improved by controlling and managing ecology. For the scenario of cultivated land protection, high-quality cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas will be effectively protected, and the cultivated land area in northern and central Jiangsu will obviously increase. The dual protection of both ecology and cultivated land will allow for strong sustainable development and the effective restriction of the disorderly expansion of construction land in 2030. However, the contradiction between demand and supply of construction land will be prominent in a short term. ③It is advisable to adopt the development mode of protecting ecology in the Taihu Lake, the Huai River basin, the conservation areas of Yangtze River wetland, and coastal areas, to adopt the development mode of protecting cultivated land in the Subei and Suzhong plains, and to adopt the development mode of protecting both ecology and cultivated land in the five cities in southern Jiangsu. Given the further implementation of the development strategy along the Yangtze River, the development mode of natural growth can be adopted in Yangzhou and Taizhou cities in central Jiangsu Province. This study revealed the spatio-temporal evolutionary laws of the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province. The simulation of the spatial pattern under various scenarios will provide decision support for Jiangsu Province to achieve regional development modes suitable for local conditions and assist Jiangsu Province in forming the spatial pattern of land where ecology-agriculture-construction land couples mutually and develops in a coordinated manner.
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