元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,简称CA)是一种基于微观个体的相互作用空间离散动态模型,其强大的计算功能、固有的平行计算能力、高度动态及空间概念等特征,使它在模拟空间复杂系统的时空动态演变研究具有较强的优势。文章回顾了元胞自动机的发展历程,阐述了CA在地理学中的主要应用领域和研究进展,在此基础上,以现实世界地理实体及现代城市扩张特征为视角,分析目前CA研究所面临的问题,并对其未来的研究趋势进行了初步探讨,认为以下3个方面将是未来CA研究的热点：① 利用不规则元胞及可控邻域的CA模型,对不同规则或不同邻域地理实体的模拟研究;② 采用三维元胞自动机对现代城市扩张进行立体化模拟,以克服二维CA模型的缺陷;③ 将矢量元胞自动机模型应用于地理实体的模拟研究,进一步提高模拟精度。

利用长江源区1986、2000与2014年3期的遥感影像, 结合实地野外考察获得该地区在这3个时间点的土地覆盖类型图。根据各时期之间的土地覆盖格局的变化确定土地类型之间的转移概率, 进一步完成对该地区马尔科夫链模型的构建、检验与预测。结果表明：1986—2014年, 长江源区的土地覆盖格局的变化特征符合马尔科夫过程, 通过马尔科夫链模型能够对该地区的覆盖格局变化过程进行有效的模拟；长江源区的土地覆被退化趋势明显, 湿地、中高覆盖草地等面积不断下降, 裸地、沙地以及低覆盖草地等面积则一直在增加；2000年以后, 由于三江源区自然保护区的建立以及降水量的增加等因素影响, 长江源区的植被退化状况得到明显改善。 

改革开放以来,中国经济在飞速发展的同时,生态环境问题日益严峻。为保障国家和地区的生态安全,对未来生态空间进行模拟预测十分必要。在长江大保护和长江经济带绿色发展背景下,以湖北省为研究区,利用FLUS模型基于湖北省2010年、2015年土地利用数据及包含自然和人文因素的15种驱动因子数据,对2035年的湖北省生态空间进行模拟预测。结果表明：利用2010年土地利用现状模拟出的2015年湖北省土地利用变化情况,总体精度达到0.976,Kappa系数达到0.961,模拟精度较高。设置的生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及综合空间优化4种不同情景,基本满足未来湖北省不同发展导向的需求。从地貌单元角度来看,在不同情景下,湖北省生态空间主要分布于湖北省边陲四大山区,中部江汉平原生态空间零星分布。从数量规模上来看,不同情景下各个用地类型数量规模差异较为明显,生产空间优先情景下耕地面积增加1216 km²,生活空间优先情景下城镇用地规模增加5959 km²,生态空间优先情景下生态空间用地增长722 km²,综合空间优化情景下生态空间用地规模变化更趋于平缓。从生态空间变化分布来看,四大山区的生态空间变化不大,但中部江汉平原生态空间变化较为明显,其中从行政区划上来看,变化范围主要分布于武汉城市圈、襄阳市、宜昌市中西部地区及随州市中部地区。总而言之,FLUS模型对于湖北省生态空间模拟的适用性较好,多情景模拟结果可为湖北省未来国土空间规划及未来生态空间管控提供多角度、多方向的政策决策参考。

Since reform and opening up in 1978, with the rapid development of China's economy, the problem of ecological environment has become increasingly serious. In order to ensure the ecological security of the countries and regions, it is necessary to simulate and predict the future ecological space. Under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy and the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper takes Hubei province as the research area. Based on the data of land use in 2010 and 2015 and the data of 15 driving factors including natural and human factors, the FLUS model was used to simulate and predict the ecological space of Hubei province in 2035. Based on the current situation of land use in 2010, the results show that the overall accuracy of land use change in Hubei in 2015 is 0.976, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.961, which are of high accuracy. The four scenarios of production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority and comprehensive space optimization basically meet the needs of different development orientations in this province in the future. From the perspective of geomorphic unit, under different scenarios, the ecological space of Hubei is mainly distributed in the four major mountainous areas on the border of Hubei province, and the ecological space in the central Jianghan Plain is scattered. In terms of quantity scale, the difference in the size and scale of each land use type in different scenarios is more obvious. The area of cultivated land increased by 1216 km2 under the priority of production space, and the scale of urban land use increased by 5959 km2 under the priority of living space. The ecological space used in the ecological space priority scenario increased by 722 km2, while that used in the integrated space optimization scenario became moderate. From the distribution of ecological space change, the ecological space of the four mountainous areas has not changed much, but the ecological space of the central Jianghan Plain is more obvious. From the perspective of administrative divisions, the scope of change is mainly distributed in Wuhan City Circle, Xiangyang city, the central-west of Yichang city and the central part of Suizhou city. All in all, the FLUS model has good applicability to the ecological spatial simulation in Hubei. The results of multi-scenario simulation can provide a multi-angle and multi-directional policy decision reference for the future territorial spatial planning and ecological spatial control in this province.

Since reform and opening up in 1978, with the rapid development of China's economy, the problem of ecological environment has become increasingly serious. In order to ensure the ecological security of the countries and regions, it is necessary to simulate and predict the future ecological space. Under the background of the Yangtze River protection strategy and the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, this paper takes Hubei province as the research area. Based on the data of land use in 2010 and 2015 and the data of 15 driving factors including natural and human factors, the FLUS model was used to simulate and predict the ecological space of Hubei province in 2035. Based on the current situation of land use in 2010, the results show that the overall accuracy of land use change in Hubei in 2015 is 0.976, and the Kappa coefficient is 0.961, which are of high accuracy. The four scenarios of production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority and comprehensive space optimization basically meet the needs of different development orientations in this province in the future. From the perspective of geomorphic unit, under different scenarios, the ecological space of Hubei is mainly distributed in the four major mountainous areas on the border of Hubei province, and the ecological space in the central Jianghan Plain is scattered. In terms of quantity scale, the difference in the size and scale of each land use type in different scenarios is more obvious. The area of cultivated land increased by 1216 km2 under the priority of production space, and the scale of urban land use increased by 5959 km2 under the priority of living space. The ecological space used in the ecological space priority scenario increased by 722 km2, while that used in the integrated space optimization scenario became moderate. From the distribution of ecological space change, the ecological space of the four mountainous areas has not changed much, but the ecological space of the central Jianghan Plain is more obvious. From the perspective of administrative divisions, the scope of change is mainly distributed in Wuhan City Circle, Xiangyang city, the central-west of Yichang city and the central part of Suizhou city. All in all, the FLUS model has good applicability to the ecological spatial simulation in Hubei. The results of multi-scenario simulation can provide a multi-angle and multi-directional policy decision reference for the future territorial spatial planning and ecological spatial control in this province.

城市空间扩张是复杂的社会经济进程,伴随着人口、政策和城市要素向外推进等现象,是评判城市化水平的重要指标。元胞自动机（Cellular Automata, CA）是可以模拟事物发展演化过程的系统动力学模型,可以有效揭示城市空间扩张过程的特征和机制,具有广阔的应用前景。根据Geo-CA的内涵与特征,以湖南省衡阳市为例,考虑城市空间扩张的主要影响因素,本文提出了多因素制约的城市空间扩张过程元胞自动机模拟模型（Multi-factors Constrained Expanding Simulation CA, MCES-CA）。结合多期LANDSET影像、DEM和规划数据等数据源,论文构建并实现了MCES-CA模型,取得了较好的模拟结果。经检验,MCES-CA的模拟精度总体达89.24%。模拟结果显示衡阳主城区的空间扩张具有多方向、多阶段的特征,受到城市的自然环境和发展规划等因素的制约。本文研究表明,MCES-CA是一种简洁、易实现且高效的城市空间扩张模拟工具,今后应该结合人工智能方法提高模拟结果的精度。

分析土地利用功能转型及带来的生态服务价值转变,是快速城镇化地区土地资源开发利用和“三生空间”管控的重要依据。论文基于福州新区2000、2009和2015年3期Landsat ETM+/OLI遥感数据和“三生”土地利用主导功能分类体系,应用GIS定量研究了福州新区15 a土地利用功能转型特征及生态系统服务价值时空演变,结果表明： 1）15 a间福州新区的生活生产空间增长迅速,面积增加了11 224.63 hm²,增长率达82.31%;生态生产空间面积出现先下降后增长趋势,总体增长了19.94%;生活生产空间的增长源于对生态空间和生产生态空间的侵占,生态生产空间的增长源于对湿地、海域等生态空间的侵占。2）15 a间福州新区生态系统服务价值下降了21.69%,其中生态空间下降总量最大,减少了6.822 8亿元,生活生产空间下降幅度最大,下降了92.10%。3）区域生态系统服务价值存在提高和下降两种相反趋势,导致研究区生态系统服务价值降低的主要原因是生活生产空间对生态空间和生产生态空间的侵占,贡献率分别达38.60%和18.77%,其次为生态生产空间对生态空间的侵占。4）推进福州新区“三生空间”协同布局,应加强区内生态林地、闽江河口、海岸线等重点生态空间的保护,稳步推进新区核心区域生活空间基础设施优化,集约利用生产空间,增加产出效益。

选取汾河流域为研究区,基于2015年、2018年土地利用类型数据,并采用EES模型筛选了对应基准年的20项驱动因子数据,利用FLUS模型,在验证模型精度有效性的基础上,模拟预测了2024年、2030年生产空间优先、生活空间优先、生态空间优先以及三生空间协调4种情景下汾河流域生态空间的时空演化特征及成因。结果表明:(1) 2018—2030年汾河流域生态空间呈现两类演变趋势,在生态空间优先、三生空间协调情景下呈现线性增长,分别增长5.92%、5.13%;生产空间优先、生活空间优先情景下呈现线性下降,分别下降9.40%、2.20%;生产、生活、生态空间用地结构比例维持4:1:5。(2) 时空格局上,生态空间位于流域边缘山区,生产、生活空间位于核心盆地,生态、生产、生活空间整体呈现依次嵌套的格局特征;生态空间核心区变化幅度较小,边缘区变化显著。(3) 2024年、2030年三生空间协调情景、生态空间优先情景下生态空间的演变趋势近似,受流域自然-社会发展趋势及国家政策影响,未来可利用后备土地资源有限,流域生态空间变化较小但也存在胁迫隐患。基于此,本文建议严格遵循“三线”(永久基本农田保护红线、生态保护红线、城镇开发边界线)基本原则,合理规划三生空间后备土地资源,对生态空间边缘区(生态敏感区)积极治理保育,核心区限制开发,促进流域科学发展。

Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of watershed ecological space was conducted for the Fenhe River Basin to provide reference and guidance for the coordinated and sustainable development of watershed production-living-ecological space. An ecological-economic-social model was used with land use type data for 2015 and 2018, and 20 drivers were selected. The accuracy and effectiveness of the future land use simulation model was verified, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and drivers of ecological change in the Fenhe River Basin were simulated and predicted for 2024 and 2030 under four scenarios: production space priority, living space priority, ecological space priority, and production-living-ecological space coordination. We found that the ecological space of the Fenhe River Basin presented two types of evolution trends from 2018 to 2030. It showed linear growth under the ecological space priority and production-living-ecological space coordination scenarios, with increases of 5.92% and 5.13%, respectively, while there was a linear decrease under the production space priority and living space priority scenarios, with decreases of 9.40% and 2.20%, respectively, and the proportion of production space, living space, and ecological space land structure maintained a ratio of 4:1:5. In the spatiotemporal pattern, the ecological space was located in the marginal mountainous area of the watershed, and the production space and living space were located in the core basin. The ecological space, production space, and living space as a whole present successively nested pattern characteristics. The range of change in the core area of the ecological space was small, and the change in the marginal area was significant. The evolution trend of ecological space under the production-living-ecological space coordination scenario and ecological space priority scenario was similar in 2024 and 2030. Affected by the natural-social development trend of the watershed and national policies, the available reserve land resources are predicted to be limited in the future, and the ecological space change of the watershed is predicted to be small, but there are also hidden threats. Therefore, we suggest strictly following the basic principles of three lines, the permanent basic farmland protection red line, ecological protection red line, and urban development boundary line, reasonably planning the reserve land resources of the production-living-ecological space, actively governing and conserving the ecological space edge areas (ecologically sensitive areas), restricting the development of core areas, and promoting the scientific development of watersheds.

乌鲁木齐市作为新疆首府、“一带一路”中的中亚区域经济中心，其土地资源的合理利用、城市形态的健康发展则显得尤为重要。本研究首先基于乌鲁木齐主城区1990~2018年遥感影像解译出的土地利用分类对其土地利用时空演变情况加以分析，1990~2018年乌鲁木齐主城区急剧扩张，2010年以来交通网络铺设完善，主城区快速扩张，周遭耕地、林地、草地等萎缩95.12 km2、6.49 km2、52.37 km2，重心呈现出向东与向北扩张趋势，主城区农用与绿化面积萎缩，无法兼顾经济与生态效益协调可持续发展。接着，遴选自然与社会经济等影响主城区扩张的驱动因素，结合乌鲁木齐主城区扩张历史特点设计第一产业优先、第二三产业优先、生态优先情景，利用GeoSOS-FLUS模型对不同情景下的主城区扩张情景进行模拟预测，研究发现第二三产业优先情景下建设用地明显增加1 142.94 km2；生态优先情景下生态效益高的林地、草地、水域面积显著增加281.59、651.38、7.29 km2；第一产业优先情景下，建设用地、耕地等地类面积扩张617.14、611.71 km2。上述对乌鲁木齐的城市扩张加以多情景预测推演，不仅有利于重新审视乌鲁木齐城市扩张的合理性，也可以为其未来城市合理、科学的规划与发展指明方向。