Abstract:
By objectively assessing the response of forest fires to factors like terrain, vegetation, and human activities, this study aims to provide technical guidance for forest fire prevention and risk zoning in Chongqing City, China. In this study, 1 206 historical forest fire data of Chongqing City from 2000 to 2022 were used as dependent variables. The height, slope, terrain ruggedness, vegetation cover, land cover classification, and road network distance data were utilized as forest fire risk factors. With these data, a piecewise function was established to obtain the single-factor risk probabilities of forest fires. Based on the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), the weights of the single-factor risk probabilities of forest fires were calculated to derive the spatial distribution of weighted forest fire risk probabilities in Chongqing City. Finally, according to the risk probabilities of forest fires, the forest fire risk in Chongqing City was divided into the low, relatively low, relatively high, high, and extremely high levels. The results indicate that among nine forest fire risk factors, the contributions of forest land, dry land, and vegetation cover to forest fire risk ranked top three, whereas the slope, height, and terrain ruggedness contributed little to forest fire risk. The forest fire risk levels of Chongqing City based on the weights of single-factor risk probabilities demonstrated satisfactory verification effects. Forest fires falling in zones at relatively high and above risk levels represented 83 %. In contrast, forest fires falling in zones at low and relatively low risk levels represented 8.33 % and 8.67 %, respectively. The forest fire risk in Chongqing City was intimately associated with the terrain trend, land use, and human activities. The high-risk and extremely high-risk zones were primarily distributed in low to middle mountain forest areas subjected to frequent human activities. Additionally, the areas surrounding forest land, located near farmland, rural roads, residential areas, and cemeteries, were also classified into high-risk zones since the frequent use of fire for production and daily life was prone to induce forest fires. The low-risk zones included primarily low and flat non-forest areas and steep forest areas, along with building land, water bodies, and paddy and dry lands that are far from forest land. Overall, the results of this study can be used to assess the spatial distribution of forest fire risk, providing scientific guidance for forest fire prevention.