基于随机森林的降水产品降尺度及其水文适用性评估
Downscaling of precipitation products based on the random forest and assessment of their hydrologic applicability
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摘要: 全球卫星降水计划(global precipitation measurement mission,GDM)等降水产品以连续分布、空间范围广等优势被广泛应用于流域研究,但存在精度不足、空间分辨率低等问题。该文基于随机森林(random forests,RF)降尺度模型融合多源影响因子生成2种高空间分辨率的日降水产品RF1和RF2,并输入HEC-HMS(the hydrologic engineering centers-hydrologic modeling system)模型中模拟信江流域日径流量变化,评价RF1和RF2对GPM水文适用性的改进。结果表明: RF1和RF2均能改进GPM的数据精度与分布细节,RF2相关性更高、误差更小,探测降水事件的命中率方面RF1更优; RF1与GPM模拟的径流曲线相似且有较大改善,RF2修正了GPM的部分高估且在部分时段更接近真实流量曲线峰值,但因站点分布不均影响了对地形复杂区的预测,模拟精度受限。总体上看,RF1和RF2都能够有效反映信江流域的日降水变化情况,不同程度改进了GPM在水文应用能力。Abstract: Precipitation products, including the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, have been widely used in river basin studies due to their advantages like continuous distributions and broad spatial ranges. However, they are limited by insufficient accuracy and low spatial resolution. Based on the random forest (RF), this study integrated multisource influencing factors to generate two daily precipitation products with high spatial resolution: RF1 and RF2. The two daily precipitation products were input to the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model to simulate daily runoff changes in the Xinjiang River basin. Finally, this study assessed the contributions of RF1 and RF2 to the improvement of GPM’s hydrologic applicability. The results show that both RF1 and RF2 improved the accuracy and distribution details of GPM data. RF2 exhibited a higher correlation and lower error, whereas RF1 manifested superior performance in detecting precipitation events. The RF1-simulated runoff curves resembled GPM-derived curves, showing significant improvements. RF2 corrected partial GPM’s overestimates and more accurately revealed the peak values of real flow curves in some periods. However, the uneven distribution of monitoring stations affected RF2’s prediction in complex terrain areas, limiting its simulation accuracy. Overall, both RF1 and RF2 can effectively reflect daily precipitation changes in the Xinjiang River basin, improving GPM’s hydrologic applicability to varying degrees.
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