2000—2022年北京市植被春季物候期变化特征分析
Analysis of the changes in spring phenology of vegetation in Beijing City from 2000 to 2022
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摘要: 春季物候的研究对于了解植被生长发育周期、探索其对气候环境变化的响应机制有着重要的意义,也为指导农业生产、保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要参考。该文对2000—2022年北京市的MOD13Q1数据进行时间序列重建,基于动态阈值法提取出23 a内北京市植被的春季物候,进一步通过Mann-Kendall趋势检验法对北京市的春季物候进行时空变化特征分析,最后使用偏相关分析方法分析了春季物候对气候变化的响应差异。主要结论如下: ①北京市植被的春季物候平均在第117天(四月下旬),在过去近20 a约以1.14 d/a的变化速率逐渐提前; ②不同植被类型的春季物候呈现层级差异,其中森林的春季物候最早,为第107天,灌木和草地次之,分别为第117天和第119天,农田最晚,为第130天; ③年均温度对春季物候的影响存在显著的区域差异,其中河流、水库等水源充沛地区呈正相关关系,在房山区东部存在显著的负相关关系; ④从月尺度来看,11,12,1,2月气温对春季物候的影响最大,随着冬季气温的上升,植物春季物候表现出提前的趋势。该研究探索了北京市植被春季物候对于气温和降水的响应机制,为气候变化背景下植被生产指导提供了参考。Abstract: Investigating spring phenology is critical for understanding the growth and development cycles of vegetation and the response mechanisms to climate and environmental changes. It also provides significant insights for guiding agricultural production and protecting and restoring ecosystems. This study reconstructed the time series of MOD13Q1 data for Beijing City from 2000 to 2022. Based on dynamic thresholding, this study extracted the spring phenology of vegetation in Beijing City over the past 23 years. Furthermore, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in spring phenology in Beijing City using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test. Finally, this study examined the differential responses of spring phenology to climate change through partial correlation analysis. The results of this study indicate that the average spring phenology of vegetation in Beijing City occurred on the 117th day of a year (in late April), advancing at an average rate of approximately 1.14 days per year over the past 23 years. Different duo exhibited distinct hierarchical variations in spring phenology. Forests showed the earliest spring phenology starting from the 107th day, followed by shrubs (the 117th day) and grasslands (the 119th day), with the latest being farmland (the 130th day). The impacts of average annual temperature on spring phenology exhibited significant spatial variations. A positive correlation was observed in water-rich areas such as rivers and reservoirs, whereas a significant negative correlation occurred in eastern Fangshan District. On a monthly scale, temperatures in November, December, January, and February significantly influenced spring phenology. As winter temperatures rose, the spring phenology of vegetation tended to advance. This study explores the response mechanisms of spring phenology of vegetation in Beijing City to temperature and precipitation, providing valuable insights for vegetation management under climate change.
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