基于SRP的长江经济带江苏段生态脆弱性评价与分析
SRP model-based assessment and analysis of ecological vulnerability in the Yangtze River economic belt within Jiangsu Province
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摘要: 随着社会经济发展和城镇化率不断提高,人类赖以生存的生态环境受到影响,尤其是长江经济带江苏段受城市化和土地开发等影响,生态质量面临严峻挑战,生态脆弱性评价已成为研究热点之一。该文以长江经济带江苏段2005—2020年4个时期生态脆弱性为研究对象,采用灵敏度弹性压力(sensitivity resilience pressure,SRP)模型,选取生态恢复力、生态压力度和生态敏感性3类16项指标,基于结合层次分析法与空间主成分分析法(analytic hierarchy process-spatial principal component analysis,AHP-SPCA)权重计算方法和地理探测器,研究生态脆弱性特征和影响因素。研究发现: ①研究区生态脆弱性呈现出从南京向南通逐渐增加趋势; ②生态脆弱性等级之间转变主要发生在相邻等级之间,中度和重度脆弱性减小,轻度、微度和潜在脆弱性增加; ③耕地占比、人口密度和生物丰度是主要驱动因素,植被覆盖与耕地占比的交互作用具有最大解释力。研究结果对江苏省长江沿岸生态环境保护和可持续发展提供了重要参考。Abstract: Socioeconomic development and intensified urbanization have influenced ecosystems essential for human survival. In particular, the ecological quality of the Yangtze River economic belt (YREB) within Jiangsu Province has been significantly challenged due to urbanization and land development, establishing ecological vulnerability assessment as a prominent focus. This study investigated the ecological vulnerability in the YREB within Jiangsu Province across four periods from 2005 to 2020, based on the sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model that involves 16 indicators in three categories: ecological resilience, pressure, and sensitivity. Using the analytic hierarchy process-selective principal component analysis (AHP-SPCA) weighting method and geodetector, this study delved into the characteristics and drivers of ecological vulnerability. The results indicate that the ecological vulnerability in the study area increased gradually from Nanjing to Nantong cities. Ecological vulnerability levels shift primarily between adjacent levels, characterized by decreased moderate/severe vulnerability and increased mild/slight/potential vulnerability. Primary drivers of ecological vulnerability include the proportion of arable land, population density, and biodiversity, with the interaction between vegetation cover and the proportion of arable land showing the highest explanatory power. Overall, the results of this study provide a significant reference for ecosystem conservation and sustainable development along the Yangtze River within Jiangsu Province.
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