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    内蒙古草原生态系统NEP时空变化特征及影响因素研究

    Exploring the spatiotemporal variations and influential factors of net ecosystem productivity in the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem

    • 摘要: 净生态系统生产力(net ecosystem productivity,NEP)是定量反映生态系统固碳能力的重要指标。为探究内蒙古草原生态系统的碳源/汇状况,支撑低碳减排工作,该文基于MODIS净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)和气象数据,采用趋势分析、变异系数、Hurst指数和通径分析法探究了2001—2020年内蒙古草原生态系统NEP指数的时空变化特征及其与影响因素的关系。结果显示: 内蒙古草原生态系统NEP均值整体呈“由西北向东南逐步增加,由大兴安岭向东西两麓逐渐减小”的空间分布格局,2001—2020年间的年均NEP为210.65 gC·m-2·a-1,表现为波动性增强,增速为3.81 gC·m-2·a-1; NEP增加的区域占草原总面积的99.33%,碳汇功能变化较稳定; 69.08%的草原NEP在未来一段时间内呈弱反持续性,碳汇功能可能会减弱; 所选影响因素综合解释了83.7%的NEP变化,其中降水量和最低温度是NEP变化的主导因素。研究结果不仅有助于了解内蒙古草原生态系统的固碳特征,而且对实现“碳达峰,碳中和”的战略目标具有重要意义。

       

      Abstract: Net ecosystem productivity (NEP) serves as a significant index that quantitatively represents the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. This study aims to explore the carbon source/sink status of the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem to support the efforts for low carbon and emission reduction. Based on MODIS NPP and meteorological data, and applying the trend analysis, coefficient of variation, Hurst index, and path analysis, this study explored the spatiotemporal variations of the NEP index in the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem from 2001 to 2020 and its relationship with influential factors. The results indicate that the overall spatial distribution pattern of average NEP in the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem was characterized by a gradual increase from northwest to southeast, and a gradual decrease from the Great Xing’an Range to the eastern and western foothills. The average annual NEP over the past 20 years was 210.65 gC·m-2·a-1, showing a fluctuating increase at a rate of 3.81 gC·m-2·a-1. The areas with increased NEP represented 99.33 % of the total grassland area, suggesting relatively stable changes in carbon sink. However, 69.08 % of NEP in the grassland system is expected to show weak anti-persistence in the near future, suggesting that carbon sink might be weakened. The selected influential factors, dominated by rainfall and minimum temperature, comprehensively explained 83.7 % of NEP variations. The results of this study assist in understanding the carbon sequestration characteristics of the Inner Mongolian grassland ecosystem while holding critical significance for achieving the carbon peak and neutrality goals.

       

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