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    结合时序InSAR与IRIME-LSTM模型的大范围矿区地表沉降预测

    Predicting surface subsidence in large-scale mining areas based on time-series InSAR and the IRIME-LSTM model

    • 摘要: 干涉合成孔径雷达(interferometric synthetic aperture Radar,InSAR)技术是实现大范围矿区地表沉降分析的重要手段和方法,准确预测地表沉降对预防地质灾害具有重要意义。针对长短期时间记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络模型的参数难以选取以及霜冰算法(rime optimization algorithm,RIME)易陷入局部最优、依赖初始解的问题,提出一种基于混沌映射、改进莱维飞行机制和猎食者(hunter-prey optimizer,HPO)算法的全局勘探策略改进的霜冰算法(improved rime optimization algorithm,IRIME)优化LSTM的地表沉降预测模型。以甘肃省红会煤矿为研究对象,利用SBAS-InSAR技术获取矿区高相干点的沉降时序,使用IRIME-LSTM模型对高相干点进行多步预测,并与InSAR监测结果进行对比分析。结果表明: 该预测方法在整体测试集中的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.65 mm,1.59 mm和3.92%,与RIME-LSTM和GS-LSTM模型相比,均方根误差分别降低37.20%和51.73%,平均绝对误差分别降低42.60%和56.32%,平均绝对百分比误差分别降低35.63%和50.51%,表明该方法具有较强的可靠性和可行性。

       

      Abstract: Interferometric synthetic aperture Radar (InSAR) technology serves as a significant approach for analyzing surface subsidence in large-scale mining areas. Accurately predicting surface subsidence plays a significant role in preventing geological disasters. The long short-term memory (LSTM) network model faces challenges in parameter selection, while the rime optimization algorithm (RIME) is susceptible to local optimum and dependence on the initial solution. Considering these challenges, this study proposed a surface subsidence prediction model with LSTM optimized by the improved rime optimization algorithm (IRIME). The IRIME incorporated chaotic mapping, the improved Lévy flight mechanism, and the global exploration strategy of the hunter-prey optimizer (HPO). The proposed model is also referred to as the IRIME-LSTM model. With the Honghui coal mine as the study area, this study obtained the subsidence time series of highly coherent points in the mining area using small baseline subset (SBAS)-InSAR technology. Subsequently, this study conducted multi-step predictions of these highly coherent points using the IRIME-LSTM model, with the prediction results compared with the InSAR monitoring data. The results of this study indicate that the IRIME-LSTM model yielded a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.65 mm, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.59 mm, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.92 % in the overall test set. Compared to the RIME-LSTM and GS-LSTM models, the IRIME-LSTM model reduced the RMSE by 37.20 % and 51.73 %, the MAE by 42.60 % and 56.32 %, and the MAPE by 35.63 % and 50.51 %, respectively, demonstrating its high reliability and feasibility.

       

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