Abstract: Global warming has exacerbated drought conditions, posing a significant threat to ecosystem structures and functions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution of ecological vulnerability and its response to drought plays a significant role in achieving regional high-quality and sustainable development. With Xinjiang as the study area, this study constructed an assessment index system for ecological vulnerability based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model. Using methods like local spatial autocorrelation, coefficient of variation, slope trend analysis, and Hurst exponent, this study assessed the ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020, followed by future trend prediction. Moreover, this study explored the impacts of drought on ecological vulnerability using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results indicate that the overall ecological vulnerability was relatively high in Xinjiang, with its spatial distribution characterized by significant regional differences and spatial aggregation. The SPEI value showed a downward trend at an average annual rate of 0.093 9, suggesting a significant worsening trend of regional aridification. The area featuring a negative correlation between drought and ecological vulnerability represented 54.1 %, indicating that ecological vulnerability in most areas decreased with improved regional moisture conditions. The stable distribution area of ecological vulnerability constituted 77.8 %, dominated by severely and extremely vulnerable areas. In the future, the majority of Xinjiang (61.3 %) is projected to witness decreased ecological vulnerability and enhanced ecological quality. Overall, the results of this study deepen the understanding of the status and driving mechanism of ecological vulnerability in Xinjiang, providing a scientific reference and decision-making basis for enhancing the adaptability of regional ecosystems to environmental changes.