Abstract: Exploring land use evolution and its impact on carbon storage is significant for mitigating climate change and promoting green and low-carbon development in metropolitan circles. Under the carbon peak and neutrality goals, this study implemented dual-constraint transition matrix optimization using point-of-interest (POI) data and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, followed by the coupling with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model. Based on the InVEST-PLUS coupled model, this study analyzed the land use evolution in the Jinan metropolitan circle from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem carbon storage. Considering natural development, urban development, and ecological conservation as three distinct scenarios, this study simulated and predicted the land use change in the Jinan metropolitan circle in 2030 and 2060. Moreover, this study estimated the corresponding ecosystem carbon storage and analyzed the shift of the carbon storage center. Finally, this study explored the factors driving the spatial differentiation of carbon storage using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the Jinan metropolitan circle saw a continued decrease in arable land, grassland, and unused land; a fluctuating increase in forest land; and a rapid increase in water area and construction land. The carbon storage and land use pattern in the Jinan metropolitan circle showed similar distributions characterized by higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest, with the main body of the Yellow River as the dividing line. The carbon storage in arable land served as the primary source of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle since it represented over 80 % of the total carbon storage. The simulation results reveal decreased carbon storage under the three scenarios, primarily due to the conversion from arable land in high carbon-density areas to construction land in low carbon-density areas. The ecological conservation scenario shows the highest total estimated carbon storage, which is 4 226.86×10⁶ t in 2030 and 3 967.94×10⁶ t in 2060. The carbon storage center in the Jinan metropolitan circle displays a certain shift in different development periods and scenarios due to land use change. However, the carbon storage center remains located in Licheng District, suggesting that the development of the Jinan metropolitan circle is relatively comprehensive and balanced. Various driving factors manifest significant impacts on the spatial distribution of carbon storage in the Jinan metropolitan circle. Notably, population density shows the greatest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage. Additionally, the interactions of various factors enhance their explanatory power for carbon storage.