Abstract: Investigating land-use-related carbon emissions (LCE) plays a vital role in achieving goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality (also referred to as the “dual carbon” goals). Research on the changes and prediction of LCE in Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture (also referred to as the Xiangxi Prefecture) can provide a theoretical reference for the region to develop policies on the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals and for local balanced development and protection. Based on five sets of land use data from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the land use conditions and the spatiotemporal evolution of historical carbon emissions in Xiangxi Prefecture. The factors influencing LCE were determined using a decoupling model and a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model. Furthermore, three land use scenarios were established: natural development, priority of cultivated land protection, and ecological protection priority. Using these scenarios, this study predicted the land use and carbon emissions in Xiangxi Prefecture in 2030. The results indicate that forest land represents the dominant land use type in Xiangxi Prefecture. Regarding land use transition, the period from 2000 to 2020 witnessed a significant increase in construction land, which encroached into substantial areas of forest land and cultivated land. Concurrently, water bodies and grassland decreased in area, being converted into forest land and cultivated land. From the perspective of carbon emissions, land use in the region exhibited a transformation from carbon sinks to carbon sources in general. During the 20-year span, the total LCE continued to increase. Construction land was identified as the primary land type as a carbon source, while forest land was the main land type as a carbon sink. Within the 20 years, carbon emissions decreased only in Huayuan County but increased in all other counties and cities. After 2010, the original regions with elevated carbon emissions showed a decrease in carbon emissions, while other regions witnessed growing carbon emissions to varying degrees. These regional changes in carbon emissions were largely attributed to the increased carbon emissions from construction land. Xiangxi Prefecture maintained a weak decoupling effect generally, with counties and cities fluctuating between weak decoupling and strong decoupling states. The economic output effect and energy efficiency effect served as the primary factors influencing carbon emissions. The overall land pattern remained relatively stable across the three scenarios. The carbon emissions of the three scenarios increased in the order of ecological protection priority, natural development, and priority of cultivated land protection. In the future, construction land will still represent the dominant factor causing overall changes in carbon emissions, while forest land will remain as the primary carbon sink.