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    腾格里沙漠光电开发生态环境影响的定量预测及驱动因素分析

    Quantitative prediction and driving factors analysis for the eco-environmental impacts of photoelectric development in the Tengger Desert

    • 摘要: 随着“十四五”规划和“双碳”目标的实施,新能源因其环境友好和可持续性,成为我国新型基础设施建设绿色能源转型的关键。大规模光伏基地建设是推动能源结构绿色转型的核心,评估其生态环境效应具有重要意义。该文选取腾格里沙漠南缘最大的光伏产业园区——宁夏中卫光伏产业园作为研究区域,利用MODIS及Landsat卫星遥感数据和气象数据,通过Theil-Sen分析结合Mann-Kendall检验、偏导数分析、机器学习等方法,分析了2000—2023年植被归一化指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)、光合有效辐射比(the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation,FPAR)、叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)、植被总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)、无雪地表反照率(snow-free surface albedo,SSA)和地表温度(land surface temperature, LST)等参数的时空变化特征及其相互关系。研究还对比了光伏区域内外不同时间段的数据,以揭示光伏电站建设对沙漠地区生态环境的影响。结果表明: 研究区植被总体呈增长趋势,LST和SSA呈下降趋势; 光伏区域的植被生长明显优于光伏板外区域; NDVI, FPAR, LAI, SSA和LST变化主要受气候影响(气候贡献分别为0.433,0.360,0.354,-0.209,-0.355),而GPP变化则受光伏和气候的共同影响(分别贡献2.356和0.374)。进一步的机器学习分析表明,结合卷积神经网络(convolutional neural networks,CNN)和长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)的时间序列模型,能够有效预测NDVI的变化趋势,模型结果显示,光伏区域NDVI呈现出明显的增长趋势。研究结果为光伏电站对沙漠地区生态环境影响的定量评估和未来预测提供了新的方法和思路。

       

      Abstract: With the full implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and under the policy impetus of the "dual carbon" strategic goals, China is tilting its new infrastructure construction towards the new energy sector. Among new energy resources, solar energy, given its outstanding environmental friendliness and sustainability, has become a key focus for the green transformation of the energy system. Against this backdrop, the construction of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) bases serves as a core measure driving the green transformation of the energy structure. Therefore, systematically assessing their potential eco-environmental impacts holds significant practical significance. This study was performed in the largest PV industrial park located on the southern edge of the Tengger Desert, the Zhongwei PV Industrial Park in Ningxia, based on remote sensing data and meteorological data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and LANDSAT satellites. It analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and interrelationships of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (FPAR), the leaf area index (LAI), the gross primary productivity (GPP), the snow-free surface albedo (SSA) and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2023, using the Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall trend test, partial derivative analysis, and machine learning. The study also conducted a comparative analysis of data from inside and outside the PV park at different time periods, aiming to reveal the impact of PV power station construction on the ecological environment of the Tengger Desert. The results indicate that the study area generally exhibited an upward trend in vegetation and a downward trend in LST and albedo. The PV area demonstrated superior vegetation growth compared with the area outside the PV panels. Variations in the following parameters were primarily driven by climate: NDVI, FPAR, LAE, SSA and LST, with climate contributions estimated to be 0.433, 0.360, 0.354, -0.209, and -0.355, respectively. In contrast, GPP was jointly influenced by photovoltaic activities and climate (contribution: 2.356 and 0.374 respectively). Further machine learning-based analysis indicates that the time series model integrating convolutional neural networks (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) can effectively predict the trend of NDVI changes. The results using the model show that the NDVI in the PV area showed a significant upward trend. This study provides new methods and ideas for the quantitative assessment and future prediction of the eco-environmental impacts of PV power stations in deserts.

       

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