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    淮河流域潜在蒸散的评估分析及其与气象因子的关系

    Potential evapotranspiration in the Huaihe River Basin: Evaluation analysis and its relationship with meteorological factors

    • 摘要: 研究淮河流域蒸散特征及其与气象因子的关系对预测干旱趋势和规划农业用水具有重要意义。利用2017—2019年称重式蒸渗仪实测得的农田蒸散值(measured evapotranspiration,ETm),分析淮河流域冬小麦与夏玉米轮作制度下蒸散值的变化,检验同时段MOD16A2蒸散(evapotranspiration,ET)、潜在蒸散(potential evapotranspiration,PET)产品在淮河流域的适用性,利用趋势分析方法研究该区域PET特征和变化趋势,计算Pearson指数分析气象因子和PET的相关关系。结果表明: ①ETm为双峰型分布,在冬小麦和夏玉米生育期间分别有一次明显峰值(4月和7月)出现,年际变化大,ETm范围为868.8~1 116.3 mm, 与ET和PET显著相关; ②流域平均PET具有西高东低的空间分布特征,区域平均值最小值出现在2003年(1 316.7 mm/a),最大值在2019年(1 868.8 mm/a),差距高达552.1 mm; ③淮河流域多年PET呈西北部减少、东南部增加的趋势,平均斜率为0.99,整体有变大倾向; ④5月的多年平均PET最高,1月最低,冬季PET整体低于其他季节; ⑤淮河流域大部分地区PET与气温呈正相关关系,与相对湿度呈负相关关系。

       

      Abstract: Investigating the evapotranspiration (ET) in the Huaihe River Basin and its relationship with meteorological factors holds significant importance for predicting drought trends and optimizing agricultural water allocation. Based on the measured ET (ETm) in farmland from the weighing lysimeter during 2017—2019, this study analyzed the ET changes under the winter wheat-summer maize crop rotations and examined the applicability of the simultaneous MOD16A2 ET and potential evapotranspiration (PET) products in the Huaihe River Basin. Besides, it explored the characteristics and trends of PET in the basin using the trend analysis method and analyzed the correlations between meteorological factors and PET by calculating their Pearson correlation coefficients. The results show that the ETm exhibited a bimodal distribution pattern, with two significant peaks corresponding to the growing seasons of winter wheat and summer maize (April and July), respectively. The ETm, ranging from 868.8 to 1 116.3 mm, is characterized by considerable interannual variations and significant correlations with the ET and PET. The Huaihe River Basin showed a west-to-east decreasing gradient in average PET. The average PET within the basin reached its minimum in 2003 (1 316.7 mm/a) and its maximum in 2019 (1 868.8 mm/a), yielding a considerable difference of 552.1 mm. Moreover, the basin witnessed a multi-year PET decrease in the northwest and an increase in the southeast, with the slope trending upward generally and average 0.99. Within the basin, May recorded the highest multi-year average PET, while January saw the lowest value, with the overall PET in winter still lower than that in other seasons. The PET in most areas of the Huaihe River Basin had a positive correlation with temperature and a negative correlation with relative humidity.

       

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