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    京津冀平原区地面沉降时空演化特征及预测

    Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of land subsidence in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

    • 摘要: 京津冀地区多个城市面临地面沉降问题,严重影响城市规划与区域经济的可持续发展。该文首先利用永久散射体的合成孔径雷达干涉测量(persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture Radar, PS-InSAR)技术获取2012—2023年京津冀平原区地面位移信息,且与水准测量数据进行验证; 在此基础上,分析平原区地面沉降的时空演化特征,并结合地下水位、水文地质剖面等数据资料探究了地面沉降的成因; 最后,采用Transformer深度学习模型对北京典型沉降区地面沉降未来演化趋势进行预测。研究发现,2012—2015年间,京津冀平原区平均沉降速率基本保持稳定; 2016—2017年平原区地面沉降情况有所加剧,平均沉降速率由-21.6 mm/a增加到-38.2 mm/a; 自2018年起,沉降趋势逐渐得到控制,平均沉降速率由-22.4 mm/a减少到-4.5 mm/a。Transformer预测结果表明,未来北京地区的地面沉降情况将呈现逐步减缓趋势,到2030年,区域平均沉降速率预计将趋于零,符合《京津冀平原地面沉降综合防治总体规划(2019—2035年)》中的目标。

       

      Abstract: Multiple cities across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Plain face significant challenges from land subsidence, a critical issue severely influencing urban planning and the sustainable development of regional economy. Given this, this study first obtained ground displacement information of the BTH Plain from 2012 to 2023 using persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) technology, followed by a validation using leveling measurements. On this basis, it analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of land subsidence in the plain. Combining groundwater levels and hydrogeological profiles, this study further investigated the causes of land subsidence. Finally, it predicted the future evolution trends of land subsidence in typical subsidence areas of Beijing using a Transformer-based deep learning model. The results indicate that from 2012 to 2015, the BTH Plain exhibited a relatively stable average subsidence rate. During 2016—2017, it experienced a significant increase in the average subsidence rate from -21.6 mm/a to -38.2 mm/a. Since 2018, the subsidence trend has gradually been controlled, with the average subsidence rate decreasing from -22.4 mm/a to -4.5 mm/a. Predictions using the Transformer-based model suggest a continuous deceleration of land subsidence in the Beijing area in the future. By 2030, the regional average subsidence rate is expected to approach zero, aligning with the objectives outlined in the Comprehensive Prevention and Control Plan for Land Subsidence in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain (2019—2035).

       

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