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    基于LUCC的武汉市生态韧性演变特征及情景模拟

    Ecological resilience evolution and multi-scenario simulation in Wuhan based on land use/cover changes

    • 摘要: 为明晰武汉市生态韧性特征,维护区域生态稳定与可持续发展,基于“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”生态韧性评价模型,评估武汉市2000—2022年城市生态韧性时空演变特征,并利用斑块级土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型,设置自然发展、生态保护、建设优先3种发展情景,对2035年武汉市土地利用及生态韧性空间格局进行模拟预测。结果表明: ①2000—2022年,武汉市耕地、草地、水域、未利用地面积波动减少,林地面积总体增加,建设用地持续扩张,主要由耕地、水域转入; ②2000—2022年,武汉市生态韧性水平整体偏低,呈波动下降趋势,空间分布中间低、外围高,林地、水域及建设用地的变化影响生态韧性变化; ③较2022年,2035年3种情景下耕地均减少,林地、水域、建设用地面积均增加,生态保护情景下林地、水域面积增加显著; ④自然发展、生态保护情景生态韧性水平上升,建设优先情景生态韧性水平下降,与另2种情景相比,生态保护情景主城区周边及长江、汉江、滠水范围生态韧性等级提升,维持了优势及一般区域的空间连通性; ⑤根据生态韧性现状及模拟结果,将研究区划分为4类生态管控区,并分别提出防范措施。保护生态用地,加强耕地保护与提升,控制建设用地扩张,有利于提高生态韧性,促进武汉市可持续发展与生态安全。

       

      Abstract: This study aims to clarify the ecological resilience of Wuhan City and to safeguard regional ecological stability and sustainable development. To this end, it assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of urban ecological resilience in Wuhan City from 2000 to 2022 using a "resistance-adaptation-resilience" framework. Using the PLUS model, this study further simulated and predicted the spatial distribution patterns of land use/cover and ecological resilience in Wuhan for 2035 under three scenarios-natural development, ecological conservation, and construction priority. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2022, in terms of LUCC, Wuhan City exhibited a fluctuating decline in arable land, grassland, water bodies, and unused land, along with an initial increase followed by a decrease in forested land. It also experienced continuous expansion in construction land, mainly converted from arable land and water bodies. During this period, the city witnessed a generally low and fluctuating downward trend in ecological resilience, with a spatial distribution pattern of "low in the central area and high in the periphery". These changes in ecological resilience were influenced by variations in forest land, water bodies, and construction land. The land cover/use in 2035 is projected to expand in arable land and increase in forest land, water bodies, and construction land under all three scenarios. Notably, the ecological conservation scenario is marked by a significant growth in forest land and water bodies. Moreover, the ecological resilience level is projected to improve under the natural development and ecological conservation scenarios but to decline under the construction priority scenario. Compared to the other two scenarios, the ecological conservation scenario exhibited enhanced ecological resilience grades around the central urban area and along the Yangtze, Hanjiang, and Sheshui Rivers, maintaining spatial connectivity of high - and moderate - resilience zones. The decline in ecological resilience was attributed to the decrease in forest land, water bodies, and arable land, combined with the increase in construction land. According to the current and simulated ecological resilience, the study area can be divided into four ecological control zones to ensure ecological stability. This zoning, combined with strategies like ecological land protection, enhanced conservation and upgrading of arable land, and control over construction land expansion, will contribute to ecological resilience enhancement, sustainable development, and ecological security in Wuhan City.

       

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