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    基于混合机器学习的滑坡主控因素分析——以辽宁省抚顺地区为例

    Analysis of the dominant factors controlling landslide occurrence based on hybrid machine learning models: A case of Fushun area, Liaoning Province

    • 摘要: 滑坡是全世界最为频发的地质灾害之一,获取其发生的主控因素对于降低其造成的损失有着极其重要的意义,然而前人研究对此尚未有统一的认识。针对这一问题,该文以滑坡灾害频发的辽宁省抚顺地区开展研究,最终揭示出坡向、岩性和断裂对当地滑坡形成有着至关重要的作用。该文选用坡度、岩性等9种因素作为评价因子,运用证据权法将所有因子进行数值归一化,并选用随机森林模型和多层感知器(multi-layer perceptron, MLP)获取因子权重和最终结果,最后以受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristics, ROC)曲线对结果进行对比验证,以期能够获取更加可靠的结果。结果显示,南坡向、半软岩和距断裂距离在该地区滑坡形成过程中起重要作用。基于模型对滑坡各等级占比和准确率进行分析, 高和较高易发区滑坡占比均较高,且准确率均超过80%,揭示出基于混合机器学习模型获取的所有结果是可靠且适用的。其中基于MLP的混合模型取得了最优结果,准确率达到83.1%。这些结果为开展相似地区的滑坡主控因素分析提供了一定的参考,同时为地区开展针对性防灾减灾工作提供了可靠的数据支撑。

       

      Abstract: Landslides rank among the most frequently occurring geological hazards worldwide. Identifying the dominant factors controlling landslide occurrence holds prime significance for mitigating the resulting losses. However, previous studies have not yet reached a unified understanding of such factors. Hence, this study investigated the Fushun area, where landslides are particularly frequent. The slope aspect, lithology, and faults were found to play a decisive role in the initiation of landslides in the area. In this study, nine evaluation factors, including the slope gradient and lithology, were selected and numerically normalized using the weight of evidence method. The factor weights and final susceptibility maps were obtained using the random forest (RF) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models. The results were compared and validated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to ensure reliability. The validation results indicate that all models achieved accuracies of above 80%, revealing high proportions of landslides in very high- and high-susceptibility areas. Therefore, the hybrid machine learning models were reliable and applicable. Notably, the MLP-based hybrid models performed the best, attaining an accuracy of 83.1%. The factor weight analysis demonstrates that the southbound slope aspect, semi-weak rocks, and faults represent the dominant contributors to landslide formation in the Fushun area. Overall, these findings provide a reference for analyzing the dominant factors controlling landslide occurrence in similar areas, as well as reliable data for targeted disaster prevention and mitigation in the Fushun area.

       

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