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    基于去噪扩散概率模型的台风图像生成式路径预测方法

    A typhoon image-based generative path prediction method using the denoising diffusion probabilistic model

    • 摘要: 台风路径预测作为气象灾害预警的核心技术,其精度提升对防灾减灾具有重要科学价值。针对现有深度学习模型在台风卫星图像时序特征建模中存在的动态权重分配不足、高频细节丢失等问题,该文提出一种基于去噪扩散概率模型(denoising diffusion probabilistic model, DDPM)的台风生成式路径预测模型(typhoon generator diffusion model, TGDiff)。该方法通过通道先验卷积注意力机制(channel prior convolutional attention, CPCA),动态解耦台风图像的通道依赖性与时空演变规律,实现台风运动特征的精准建模,并结合高频感知损失函数(high-frequency perceptual loss, HFPL)的时频域联合优化,以增强模型对台风眼壁运动轨迹及云系演变细节的刻画能力。针对卫星数据时间不连续的问题,提出双向动态插值模块(bidirectional dynamic interpolation),在扩散框架内实现缺失时序数据的物理一致性重建。实验结果表明,该模型在西北太平洋台风数据集上的6 h台风路径预测中的平均误差为63.36 km,生成预测图像的峰值信噪比(peak signal-to-noise ratio, PSNR)、结构相似性指数(structural similarity index measure, SSIM)和学习感知图像块相似度(learned perceptual image patch similarity, LPIPS)分数分别为16.21,0.254和0.149。与现有深度学习方法相比,显著提升了台风结构特征的生成质量和预测精度。

       

      Abstract: Typhoon path prediction serves as a core technology for early warning of meteorological disasters. Its accuracy improvement holds significant scientific value for disaster prevention and mitigation. However, in the modeling of temporal features of typhoon satellite images, existing deep learning models face challenges such as insufficient dynamic weight allocation and loss of high-frequency details. Hence, this study proposed a typhoon generative diffusion model (TGDiff) based on the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM): the DDPM-TGDiff model. Specifically, a channel prior convolutional attention (CPCA) mechanism was employed to dynamically decouple channel dependencies and spatiotemporal evolution patterns in typhoon images, enabling precise modeling of typhoon motion characteristics. Combined with the joint optimization in time and frequency domains through a high-frequency perceptual loss (HFPL) function, the DDPM-TGDiff model can more effectively capture the details of eyewall motion trajectories and cloud system evolution. Considering the temporal discontinuities in satellite data, a bidirectional dynamic interpolation module was incorporated to achieve physically consistent reconstruction of missing time-series data within the diffusion framework. Experimental results demonstrate that the DDPM-TGDiff model yielded a mean error of 63.36 km in predicting the 6 h typhoon path on the typhoon dataset of the northwest Pacific. The generated prediction image showed a peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) of 16.21, a structural similarity index measure (SSIM) of 0.254, and a learned perceptual image patch similarity (LPIPS) of 0.149. Compared to existing deep learning models, the DDPM-TGDiff model significantly improves the structural fidelity of generated typhoon features and prediction accuracy.

       

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