Abstract: It is of critical practical significance to scientifically assess and validate the applicability of mainstream models to the analysis of land use and habitat quality across river basins and multiple complex geomorphic units. Based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, this study assessed changes in the land use along the Mid-Spine Belt of Beautiful China (MSBBC) from 2000 to 2020. Accordingly, it predicted the habitat quality and landscape ecological security by 2030 under various conservation scenarios. Finally, this study identified and analyzed the key driving factors using the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the MSBBC saw a decline of 12.3% in arable land, an increase of 8.7% in forest land, and a significant expansion of construction land. During this period, the habitat quality underwent constant degradation, with the proportion of suboptimal habitats increasing to nearly 50% and that of high-quality habitats reduced to 28.72%. The prediction results indicate that the habitat quality will improve by 2030 under all four conservation scenarios, especially under the comprehensive conservation scenario. The OPGD analysis demonstrates that dominant driving factors include elevation, population density, and expressways, with the interplay between elevation and expressways demonstrating the strongest explanatory power. Additionally, the MSBBC suffered from continuous deterioration of landscape ecological security over the two decades. Compared to individual conservation strategies, the comprehensive conservation scenario exhibits superior risk mitigation effects by 2030. The results of this study lay a scientifically robust foundation for formulating targeted ecological conservation policies in the MSBBC.