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    生态安全约束下县域耕地后备资源开发潜力评价研究

    Assessment of the development potential of county-level cultivated land reserves under ecological security constraints

    • 摘要: 耕地后备资源开发是保障粮食安全与实现耕地占补平衡的关键环节,在生态脆弱区需兼顾生态保护与资源可持续利用,但传统研究往往忽视生态安全约束。该研究以吉林省洮南市为例,基于最小累积阻力(minimum cumulative resistance,MCR)模型,通过识别生态源地和建设源地,构建生态安全格局分区,划分生态核心区、生态缓冲区、生产开发区及开发建设区,明确生态保护优先区域; 采用主成分分析与层次分析法相结合的综合赋权法,从自然本底、生态约束及开发条件3个维度构建包含11项指标的评价体系,确定指标权重并评估耕地后备资源的开发潜力。结果表明: ①生态安全格局分区能有效识别生态保护与开发优先区域,为耕地后备资源开发精准划定了生态底线;②洮南市可开发耕地后备资源总面积199.55 km2,耕地后备资源潜力划分为高、中、低3类,面积分别为56.72 km2,94.54 km2和48.29 km2,低-中潜力开发区主要分布于向阳乡和二龙乡一带,中-高潜力开发区主要分布于大通乡西北部和蛟流河乡东南部区域。综合赋权法有效平衡了主观经验与客观数据对权重分配的影响,提升了指标权重的科学性与评价结果的可靠性。研究结果可为生态脆弱区耕地后备资源开发和差异化策略制定提供科学依据,对保障粮食安全与生态安全具有重要实践意义。

       

      Abstract: The development of cultivated land reserves serves as a critical measure for ensuring food security and achieving the requisition-compensation balance of cultivated land. In ecologically vulnerable areas, this development process should integrate ecological conservation and sustainable resource utilization. However, conventional research paradigms have always neglected ecological security constraints. Based on the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model, this study identified the ecological and construction source areas in Taonan City, Jilin Province. Accordingly, the ecological security pattern in this city was established, including core ecological zones, ecological buffer zones, agricultural development zones, and urban construction zones, thereby defining the priority zones for ecological conservation. Furthermore, using the comprehensive weighting method, which combines the principal component analysis (PCA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an assessment system comprising 11 indicators was developed across three dimensions: natural background, ecological constraints, and development conditions. Following the determination of the weights of all indicators, the development potential of cultivated land reserves was assessed. The results show that the ecological security pattern zoning map assisted in effectively identifying the priority zones for ecological conservation and development, thereby accurately delineating the ecological red line for the development of cultivated land reserves. Taonan City holds 199.55 km2 of developable cultivated land reserves, with their development potential categorized into three classes: high potential (56.72 km2), medium potential (94.54 km2), and low potential (48.29 km2). The development zones with low-to-medium potential are primarily distributed in Xiangyang and Erlong townships, while those with medium-to-high potential are principally located in northwestern Datong Township and southeastern Jiaoliuhe Township. The comprehensive weighting method effectively balanced the effects of subjective experience and objective data on weight allocation, thus ensuring scientific indicator weights and reliable assessment results. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing cultivated land reserves and formulating differentiated strategies in ecologically vulnerable areas, holding practical significance for ensuring food and ecological security.

       

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