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    联合InSAR和IGA-Elman网络的积石山滑坡-泥流监测方法

    An InSAR-IGA-Elman combined method for monitoring landslide-debris flow disasters in the Jishishan area

    • 摘要: 滑坡-泥流灾害具有运动过程复杂、突发性强等特点,其形变过程的反演和预测是防灾减灾研究的重点与难点。针对积石山地区地质构造复杂、灾害预警时效性与精度不足的问题,该文提出一种联合合成孔径雷达干涉测量(interferometric synthetic aperture Radar,InSAR)与改进遗传算法优化的Elman网络(improved genetic algorithm-Elman, IGA-Elman)的监测预测方法。首先,利用时间序列InSAR技术处理Sentinel-1影像,获取研究区大范围地表形变信息; 然后,构建以形变监测值为核心,融合降雨量、坡度、高程等多源影响因子的IGA-Elman预测模型, 并通过实验验证该模型的准确性和稳定性。结果表明: ①本文提出的IGA-Elman模型实现了高精度预测,其均方根误差(root mean square error, RMSE)和平均绝对误差(mean absolute error, MAE)分别为2.649和1.098,各项指标均显著优于标准Elman及传统的反向传播(backpropagation, BP)、支持向量机(support vector machine, SVM)模型; ②该方法能够有效捕捉滑坡-泥流的早期微小形变信号,且模型性能随训练样本增加而提升,表现出良好的稳定性。研究成果可为积石山及类似地区的地质灾害预警和防治提供有效的技术支持,具有重要的应用价值和推广前景。

       

      Abstract: Landslide-debris flow disasters are characterized by sudden occurrence and complex movement processes. The inversion and prediction of their deformation processes represent key and challenging tasks in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. To enhance the timeliness and accuracy of early disaster warning in the geologically complex Jishishan area, this study proposed a monitoring and prediction method that integrates the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) with an improved genetic algorithm-optimized Elman network (IGA-Elman)-the InSAR-IGA-Elman method. First, the time-series InSAR technology was employed to process images from Sentinel-1. As a result, information on large-scale surface deformation across the study area was obtained. Subsequently, an IGA-Elman prediction model was built by using deformation monitoring data as core inputs while also incorporating multi-source influencing factors such as rainfall amount, slope, and elevation. Using the IGA, the model performed a global search for the optimal initial weights and thresholds of the Elman network, thereby overcoming conventional models' tendency toward local optimum. The experimental results indicate that the IGA-Elman model yielded high-accuracy predictions, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.649 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.098. All its performance metrics were significantly better than those of the standard Elman network and conventional models, such as the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and support vector machine (SVM). The InSAR-IGA-Elman method effectively captured subtle deformation signals in the early stage of landslide-debris flow disasters. Moreover, its model performance increased with the number of training samples, demonstrating robust model stability. The results of this study provide strong technical support for the early warning, prevention, and control of geological hazards in the Jishishan and similar areas, holding significant potential and prospects of widespread application.

       

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