Abstract:
Against the backdrop of global climate change intertwined with intensive human activities, gaining a deep understanding of vegetation dynamics in the North China Plain (also referred to as the NCP) is vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of China. Based on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data obtained using a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2001 to 2024, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution law of vegetation cover in the NCP and its driving mechanism using the Theil-Sen slope, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent, and Geodetector model. The results indicate that the vegetation cover in the NCP experienced significant improvements from 2001 to 2024. Specifically, the annual average EVI values increased from 0.297 8 to 0.375 4, with an increase of 26.06% and an increase rate of 0.002 8/a. The EVI values of the NCP were higher in the south and lower in the north, with the highest value observed in Henan Province and the highest significant increased amplitude (28.38%) occurring in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Areas with moderately high vegetation cover and above accounted for 73.34%. The area of vegetation improvement increased to 84.97% from 2001 to 2012, while the area of vegetation degradation rose to 10.36% from 2013 to 2024, particularly in west-central Henan Province and southeastern Shandong Province, respectively. The average Hurst exponent measured 0.46, with anti-persistent changes accounting for 68.74% and anti-persistent improvements representing 65.56%. Special attention should be paid to the risk of vegetation degradation in the future. Among driving factors, the land cover type predominated, with an average q value of 0.366 7, 1.45 times higher than that of other factors. The nighttime light index exhibited an enhanced impact, with the q value increasing from 0.081 8 to 0.165 9, suggesting the aggravated stress effects of urbanization. Moreover, a strong synergistic effect between land cover and climate factors was identified through interaction detection. Additionally, there existed synergistic effects between the increase in the EVI of arable land and the growth in wheat and corn yields (43.58% and 99.15%, respectively), while the expansion of construction land inhibited vegetation cover. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for protecting arable land and optimizing ecological policies in the NCP.