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    2001—2024年华北平原植被时空变化及其驱动因子研究

    Spatiotemporal changes in vegetation and their driving factors in the North China Plain from 2001 to 2024

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与高强度人类活动交织背景下,深入解析华北平原植被动态对保障粮食安全和生态安全至关重要。该研究基于2001—2024年MODIS增强型植被指数(enhanced vegetation index,EVI)数据,采用Theil-Sen斜率、Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数和地理探测器模型,系统揭示了华北平原植被覆盖的时空演变规律及其驱动机制。结果表明:①2001—2024年华北平原植被覆盖显著改善,EVI年均值从0.297 8增至0.375 4(增幅26.06%,增速0.002 8/a),空间呈“南高北低”格局,其中河南省EVI最高,京津冀增幅最显著(28.38%);②2001—2024年研究区中高及以上植被覆盖区面积占比均值为73.34%,2001—2012年改善面积占84.97%,2013—2024年恶化面积占比升至10.36%,以河南中西部和山东东南部最为明显;③Hurst指数均值为0.46,反持续变化占68.74%,反持续改善区域占65.56%,需关注未来退化风险;④土地覆盖类型是主导驱动因子,q均值为0.366 7,高出其他因子1.45倍以上,夜间灯光指数影响增强(q从0.081 8升至0.165 9),揭示城市化胁迫效应加剧,交互探测显示土地覆盖类型与气候因子的交互影响居于高位,与人类活动因子的交互影响增强;⑤耕地EVI增长与小麦、玉米产量增长(二者增幅分别为43.58%和99.15%)协同,而建筑用地扩张抑制植被覆盖增大。研究成果可为华北平原耕地保护与生态政策优化提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change intertwined with intensive human activities, gaining a deep understanding of vegetation dynamics in the North China Plain (also referred to as the NCP) is vital for ensuring the food and ecological security of China. Based on the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data obtained using a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2001 to 2024, this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution law of vegetation cover in the NCP and its driving mechanism using the Theil-Sen slope, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst exponent, and Geodetector model. The results indicate that the vegetation cover in the NCP experienced significant improvements from 2001 to 2024. Specifically, the annual average EVI values increased from 0.297 8 to 0.375 4, with an increase of 26.06% and an increase rate of 0.002 8/a. The EVI values of the NCP were higher in the south and lower in the north, with the highest value observed in Henan Province and the highest significant increased amplitude (28.38%) occurring in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Areas with moderately high vegetation cover and above accounted for 73.34%. The area of vegetation improvement increased to 84.97% from 2001 to 2012, while the area of vegetation degradation rose to 10.36% from 2013 to 2024, particularly in west-central Henan Province and southeastern Shandong Province, respectively. The average Hurst exponent measured 0.46, with anti-persistent changes accounting for 68.74% and anti-persistent improvements representing 65.56%. Special attention should be paid to the risk of vegetation degradation in the future. Among driving factors, the land cover type predominated, with an average q value of 0.366 7, 1.45 times higher than that of other factors. The nighttime light index exhibited an enhanced impact, with the q value increasing from 0.081 8 to 0.165 9, suggesting the aggravated stress effects of urbanization. Moreover, a strong synergistic effect between land cover and climate factors was identified through interaction detection. Additionally, there existed synergistic effects between the increase in the EVI of arable land and the growth in wheat and corn yields (43.58% and 99.15%, respectively), while the expansion of construction land inhibited vegetation cover. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for protecting arable land and optimizing ecological policies in the NCP.

       

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