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    基于有序逻辑回归的滑坡活动性综合遥感评价

    Integrated remote sensing assessment of landslide activity based on ordered logistic regression

    • 摘要: 滑坡活动性作为表征滑坡体运动状态的指标,是滑坡风险评价工作的重要内容。针对传统滑坡活动性评价中主观性强、效率低、不确定性大等实际问题,该研究创新性地提出了基于综合遥感与有序逻辑回归模型的滑坡活动性评价方法。该方法综合利用多源遥感数据和相关调查成果资料,集成合成孔径雷达干涉测量(interferometric synthetic aperture Radar, InSAR)地表形变监测、灾害光学解译和空间分析等实现滑坡隐患识别与评价指标提取; 结合野外调查构建活动性滑坡样本,最终基于有序逻辑回归方法构建滑坡活动性分级评价模型。该方法在云南省金沙江下游地区应用效果理想,滑坡活动性评价准确率达75.58%。分析应用结果发现对研究区滑坡活动性影响程度较高的评价指标分别是形变面积比、形变速率平均值、形变区坡度与形变方向夹角。该文提出的滑坡活动性评价方法具有快速高效、精度理想和科学客观等优势,在区域滑坡风险调查评价领域具有较大应用价值。

       

      Abstract: Landslide activity, an indicator for characterizing the kinematic state of a landslide mass, is a crucial component of landslide risk assessment. However, conventional methods for landslide activity assessment suffer from limitations such as high dependence on subjective judgment, low efficiency, and high uncertainty. To overcome these limitations, this study proposed an innovative assessment method based on integrated remote sensing and an ordered logistic regression model. Specifically, based on multi-source remote sensing data and related survey results, landslide hazard identification and assessment metric extraction were achieved by integrating interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)-based surface deformation monitoring, optical interpretation of hazards, and spatial analysis. Active landslide samples were then established through field surveys. Finally, an assessment model for landslide activity rating was constructed based on ordered logistic regression. The proposed method proved effective in assessing landslide activity in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River in Yunnan Province, yielding an assessment accuracy of 75.58%. The analysis of application results reveals that the assessment metrics significantly affecting landslide activity in the study area included the ratio of the deformation area to the total study area, the average deformation rate, and the angle between the deformation slope and direction. The proposed method offers distinct advantages in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and objectivity, holding considerable application value for the investigation and assessment of regional landslide risks.

       

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