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    东北地区国土空间碳汇冲突时空变化规律及其分区调控研究

    Spatiotemporal variation patterns and differential zonal regulation of territorial carbon sink conflict in Northeast China

    • 摘要: 为科学测度并精细化识别国土空间碳汇冲突格局,因地制宜地强化国土空间碳汇冲突管理,该文从空间碳排压力、空间不稳定性以及空间固碳能力3个维度构建国土空间碳汇冲突测度模型,以东北地区20 km×20 km格网作为评价单元,综合运用格网分析法、空间自相关分析、重心迁移模型等方法,分析1992—2020年连续时间序列下国土空间碳汇冲突时空变化特征,采用信息熵模型进行碳汇冲突分区,进一步提出差异化国土空间管控策略。结果表明: ①1992—2020年,东北地区国土空间碳汇冲突指数均值呈现“持续上升—骤然下降—平稳上升”趋势,“可控”占比逐渐降低,并向小幅度“失控”趋势演变,从空间格局变化特征来看,“可控”区域整体呈现“北扩南缩”趋势,“失控”区域整体呈现“西南降低—中部扩张—东北加剧”的演变趋势; ②1992—2020年,东北地区国土空间碳汇冲突指数高—高集聚区域集中分布于内蒙古自治区以及各省份中心城区且范围呈扩张趋势,低—低集聚区域集中分布于植被覆盖率较高的黑龙江省北部以及吉林省、辽宁省的东部等碳汇功能强的地区; ③“失控”区域重心逐渐向东北方向迁移且速度逐渐提升; ④东北地区国土空间碳汇冲突水平可划分为可控提升区、可控下降区、可控异变区、失控良变区、失控缓和区与失控加剧区,分区格局经历“低级有序—高级无序—高级有序—低级无序—相对稳定”的演变过程,其中可控区与失控区分别呈现“半环状”和“散点状”分布特征。该结果可为未来国土空间碳汇冲突的分区差异化调控、“双碳”目标下国土空间优化与碳汇潜力提升提供理论支持。

       

      Abstract: This study aims to scientifically measure and precisely identify the spatial patterns of territorial carbon sink conflict (TCSC) in China in order to strengthen region-specific TCSC. To this end, a TCSC measurement model was constructed in three dimensions: spatial carbon emission pressure, spatial instability, and spatial carbon sequestration capacity. With a 20 km × 20 km grid as the evaluation unit, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of TCSC in Northeast China from 1992 to 2020 by integrating methods including grid analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the centroid migration model. Furthermore, this study performed TCSC zoning using the information entropy model and proposed differential territorial space adjustment strategies. The results indicate that from 1992 to 2020, the average TCSC index of Northeast China shifted from a sustained increase to an abrupt decline and then to a steady rise. Meanwhile, controllable areas represented a gradually decreasing proportion, evolving toward slightly uncontrollable areas. From the perspective of variations in the spatial pattern, the controllable areas generally exhibited a trend of northward expansion and southward contraction. In contrast, the uncontrollable areas presented an overall evolutionary pattern of reduction in the southwest, expansion in the central part, and intensification in the northeast. During the study period, the high-high concentration zones of the TCSC index of Northeast China were predominantly distributed in Inner Mongolia and the central urban areas of various provinces, tending to expand. The low-low concentration zones of the TCSC index were concentrated in northern Heilongjiang with high vegetation coverage and eastern Jilin and Liaoning provinces characterized by a strong carbon sink capacity. The center of the uncontrollable areas gradually shifted northeastward at an increasingly high speed. In terms of TCSC levels, Northeast China can be divided into six types of TCSC zones, namely controllable enhancement, controllable decline, controllable variation, uncontrollable improvement, uncontrollable mitigation, and uncontrollable aggravation, with the zoning pattern having experienced an evolutionary process consisting of lower order, higher disorder, higher order, lower disorder, and relative stability sequentially. Among these, controllable and uncontrollable zones exhibited semi-circular and scattered distributions, respectively. Overall, these results of this study can provide theoretical support for the implementation of differential regulatory strategies for various TCSC zones, as well as territorial space optimization and carbon sink potential enhancement under the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

       

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