Abstract:
This study aims to scientifically measure and precisely identify the spatial patterns of territorial carbon sink conflict (TCSC) in China in order to strengthen region-specific TCSC. To this end, a TCSC measurement model was constructed in three dimensions: spatial carbon emission pressure, spatial instability, and spatial carbon sequestration capacity. With a 20 km × 20 km grid as the evaluation unit, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations of TCSC in Northeast China from 1992 to 2020 by integrating methods including grid analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the centroid migration model. Furthermore, this study performed TCSC zoning using the information entropy model and proposed differential territorial space adjustment strategies. The results indicate that from 1992 to 2020, the average TCSC index of Northeast China shifted from a sustained increase to an abrupt decline and then to a steady rise. Meanwhile, controllable areas represented a gradually decreasing proportion, evolving toward slightly uncontrollable areas. From the perspective of variations in the spatial pattern, the controllable areas generally exhibited a trend of northward expansion and southward contraction. In contrast, the uncontrollable areas presented an overall evolutionary pattern of reduction in the southwest, expansion in the central part, and intensification in the northeast. During the study period, the high-high concentration zones of the TCSC index of Northeast China were predominantly distributed in Inner Mongolia and the central urban areas of various provinces, tending to expand. The low-low concentration zones of the TCSC index were concentrated in northern Heilongjiang with high vegetation coverage and eastern Jilin and Liaoning provinces characterized by a strong carbon sink capacity. The center of the uncontrollable areas gradually shifted northeastward at an increasingly high speed. In terms of TCSC levels, Northeast China can be divided into six types of TCSC zones, namely controllable enhancement, controllable decline, controllable variation, uncontrollable improvement, uncontrollable mitigation, and uncontrollable aggravation, with the zoning pattern having experienced an evolutionary process consisting of lower order, higher disorder, higher order, lower disorder, and relative stability sequentially. Among these, controllable and uncontrollable zones exhibited semi-circular and scattered distributions, respectively. Overall, these results of this study can provide theoretical support for the implementation of differential regulatory strategies for various TCSC zones, as well as territorial space optimization and carbon sink potential enhancement under the goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.