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    喀麦隆滨海农业极耕地时空动态遥感监测与驱动因素分析

    Remote sensing-based monitoring and driving factor analysis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of cultivated land in the agropole of the Littoral Region, Cameroon

    • 摘要: 耕地是保障粮食安全、维护生态系统服务及促进社会经济发展的重要自然资源,在全球人口增长与气候变化压力加剧的背景下,精准监测和科学评估耕地的时空演变对实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。该文以喀麦隆滨海农业极为研究对象,基于1986—2024年多期Landsat遥感影像,结合GlobeLand30土地覆盖数据产品和全球油棕数据集,采用随机森林分类方法识别各时期的耕地分布,并进一步量化分析耕地面积变化、空间分布模式及潜在驱动因素。研究结果表明: ①1986—2024年,研究区耕地面积显著增加,由1986年的129.59 km2扩展至2024年的537.62 km2,累计净增长408.03 km2,年均净增长约10.74 km2; ②耕地扩张具有明显阶段性特征,1990s—2000s为高速增长期,2000s—2010s增速放缓,2010s—2020s再次进入快速扩张期; ③空间上,研究区的耕地扩张主要沿西北部展开,并逐渐向中部腹地推进,耕地减少区域零散分布于西北部海拔较高地区; ④经济作物(可可、油棕和橡胶)的规模化种植是耕地扩张的主要驱动力,其发展受市场需求、政策导向、人口增长和区位条件等多种因素共同作用。该研究结果为理解喀麦隆耕地变化提供了长时间序列的实证依据,对制定区域土地资源管理与农业可持续发展政策具有重要参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Cultivated land represents a critical natural resource for ensuring food security, maintaining ecosystem services, and promoting socio-economic development. Given the mounting pressures of global population growth and climate change, the precise monitoring and scientific assessment of the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land hold great significance for regional sustainable development. This study investigated cultivated land in the agropole of the Littoral Region, Cameroon. Based on multi-stage Landsat remote sensing images during 1986—2024, combined with the GlobeLand30 land cover data product and a global oil palm dataset, this study determined the distribution of cultivated land in the study area across different periods using the random forest algorithm. Accordingly, it further analyzed the area changes and spatial distribution patterns of the cultivated land, as well as potential driving factors. The results indicate that from 1986 to 2024, the area of cultivated land in the study area increased significantly from 129.59 km2 to 537.62 km2, with a cumulative net increase of 408.03 km2 and an average annual net increase of approximately 10.74 km2. The cultivated land exhibited distinct phases of expansion: rapid expansion from the 1990s to the 2000s, a decelerated growth from the 2000s to the 2010s, and rapid expansion again from the 2010s to the 2020s. Spatially, the expansion of cultivated land in the study area primarily occurred along the northwestern part, progressively advancing toward the central hinterland. In contrast, areas with reduced cultivated land were sparsely distributed across the highly elevated areas within the northwestern part. The expansion of cultivated land was primarily driven by the large-scale planting of cash crops (i.e., cocoa tree, oil palm, and rubber tree), which was subjected to the combined effects of multiple factors including market demand, policy orientation, population growth, and locational conditions. The results of this study provide long-time-series empirical evidence for understanding changes in cultivated land in Cameroon, thereby serving as a valuable reference for formulating policies on regional land resource management and sustainable agricultural development.

       

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