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    2000—2024年广东省蒸散发时空变化趋势及其驱动因素

    Spatiotemporal variation trends and driving factors of evapotranspiration in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2024

    • 摘要: 蒸散发的时空演变分析对区域水资源管理与生态保护等具有重要意义。以广东省为研究区,基于MODIS蒸散发产品,综合运用趋势分析及贡献率分析等方法,探究2000—2024年间蒸散发时空变化趋势及其驱动机制。结果表明: ①广东省蒸散发空间分布差异显著,空间变化范围为638.77~1 750.56 mm/a,呈现“东高西低、北高南低”的格局,季节动态呈单峰型分布,5—9月蒸散发量占全年55%以上,冬季最小; ②24 a间,全省蒸散发总体呈波动上升趋势,增长率为5.287 mm/a,肇庆、云浮和潮州的部分区域为主要增加区域,珠三角城市群和汕头市大部分区域呈减少趋势; ③土地利用类型中,林地贡献最大(年均蒸散发量1 130.25 mm/a,年贡献量均占当年各土地利用类型总贡献量的60%以上),其次为耕地(贡献量占20%以上)和建设用地(贡献量占5%左右); ④驱动因素方面,人类活动影响存在区域差异,粤东部分地区呈促进作用,珠三角则表现为抑制,贡献率分析显示,83.77%的区域蒸散发增加由气候变化与人类活动共同驱动,相比于气候变化,人类活动对蒸散发的贡献更大,人类活动贡献率大于80%的区域主要集中在粤东沿海及雷州半岛中部。研究成果有助于深入理解广东省蒸散发规律,为区域水资源合理利用与保护提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Evapotranspiration (ET), a core component of a regional hydrological cycle and ecosystem energy exchange, is of great significance for regional water resource management and ecological conservation. Based on MODIS ET products and by integrating trend analysis and contribution rate analysis, this study explored the spatiotemporal variation trends and driving mechanisms of ET in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2024. The results indicate that during the study period, the ET in Guangdong varied significantly in spatial distribution, ranging from 638.77 mm/a to 1 750.56 mm/a. Furthermore, it was higher in the east and north and lower in the west and south. In terms of seasonal dynamics, the ET distribution followed a unimodal pattern, with summer time, from May to September, contributing over 55% of the annual ET and winter exhibiting the minimum value. Over the past more than two decades, the ET across the province generally presented an upward trend with fluctuations, with a growth rate of 5.287 mm/a. Increases in ET primarily occurred in parts of Zhaoqing, Yunfu, and Chaozhou cities, while decreases in ET were observed in most areas of both the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta and Shantou City. Among various land use types, forest land served as the most significant ET contributor (average annual ET: 1 130.25 mm/a, accounting for over 60%), followed by cropland (over 20%) and construction land (approximately 5%). Regarding driving factors, human activities exerted regionally varying influence, promoting and inhibiting ET in parts of eastern Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta, respectively. Contribution rate analysis reveals that 83.77% of increases in regional ET were jointly driven by climate change and human activities. Compared to climate change, human activities contributed more significantly to ET, with areas where human activities contributed over 80% of ET being concentrated in the coastal areas of eastern Guangdong and the central Leizhou Peninsula. The results of this study will help gain deep insights into the ET patterns in Guangdong Province, thereby providing a scientific basis for the rational utilization and conservation of regional water resources.

       

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