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    基于线性回归的青海祁连山区高寒草甸植被盖度变化特征研究

    Linear regression-based analysis of changes in the fractional vegetation cover of alpine meadows in the Qilian Mountains, Qinghai Province

    • 摘要: 祁连山是西北地区重要的生态屏障,作为青海祁连山地区最主要的植被类型,高寒草甸对当地的生态、生产、生活至关重要,全面掌握该地区高寒草甸的整体状况和变化动态,对高寒草甸的保护、恢复及利用具有重要意义。为掌握青海祁连山区高寒草甸植被覆盖度长期、连续的空间变化特征,该文基于一元线性回归和残差分析,构建了适配高寒草甸长时间序列植被覆盖度变化特征的分类体系,反映高寒草甸植被覆盖度的稳定性、变化幅度和变化趋势。结果表明,该文提出的分类体系可反映研究区高寒草甸植被覆盖度的变化,各变化类型的高寒草甸依地形存在明显的空间分布特征; 1989—2022年,青海祁连山区高寒草甸整体稳定,植被覆盖度发生略微变化的区域大于明显变化的区域; 受气候的暖湿化影响,高寒草甸在海拔高、人口稀少区域植被覆盖度有明显上升,植被覆盖度的降低则是地形、气候和人类活动等因素共同作用的结果。

       

      Abstract: The Qilian Mountains in Qinghai Province serve as a vital ecological barrier in northwestern China. Alpine meadows, as the dominant vegetation in the Qilian Mountains, play a significant role in the local ecology, production, and life. A comprehensive understanding of the overall status and dynamic changes of these alpine meadows is of great significance for their protection, restoration, and utilization. This study aims to characterize the long-term, continuous spatial changes in the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) of alpine meadows in the Qilian Mountains. Based on simple linear regression and residual analysis, a classification system adaptable to the long time series of changes in the FVC of alpine meadows was established, reflecting the stability, change amplitudes, and change trends of the FVC of alpine meadows. The results indicate that the established classification system effectively reflected the changes in the FVC of alpine meadows in the study area. The alpine meadows of various change types exhibited pronounced spatial distribution characteristics consistent with terrain variations. From 1989 to 2022, the FVC of alpine meadows remained stable overall in the study area, with areas with slight variations in FVC larger than those undergoing significant changes in FVC. Under the influence of a warm and humid climate, the FVC of alpine meadows increased significantly in high-altitude, sparsely populated areas. In contrast, the decrease in FVC resulted from the combined effects of topography, climate, and human activities.

       

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