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    融合Sen-MK趋势检验与Hurst指数的北京主城区1984—2024年热岛时空演变分析

    Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of urban heat island effect in Beijing's main urban area during 1984—2024 by integrating the Sen-MK trend test with Hurst exponent

    • 摘要: 在快速城市化的进程中,加剧的城市热岛效应成为大家广泛关注的生态环境问题之一。深入研究其时空演变规律,有助于优化城市功能布局,提升人居环境质量,推动城市向低碳、可持续方向发展。该文基于1984—2024年的遥感温度数据产品,构建热岛强度数据集,综合采用Sen-MK趋势检验、Hurst指数以及空间自相关等方法,系统刻画北京主城区40 a间热岛的时空演化特征。结果表明: ①空间维度上,北京主城区热岛呈现出“中心高、外围低”的环带格局,表现出“中心减弱—外围增强—整体趋稳”的趋势特征; 同时,其整体格局大致体现“核心集聚—碎片化—再集聚”的分布规律,高温与低温分别在主城区中心和西北生态带集聚,冷暖过渡带沿城市扩张边缘零散分布。②时间维度上,北京市主城区城市热岛变化趋势总体表现为“核心巩固—边缘分化—生态缓解”,主城外缘升温累积且主城中心升降并存,局地热岛效应存在一定的震荡变化特征。研究成果可为识别北京城市热岛的长期演化模式提供科学依据,并为北京市城区空间优化、节能减排、气候适应与生态治理等提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, the increasingly pronounced urban heat island (UHI) effect has emerged as an ecological challenge attracting wide attention. A deep investigation into the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the UHI effect is crucial to optimizing urban functional layouts, improving the quality of the living environment, and driving the low-carbon, sustainable development of cities. This study established a UHI intensity dataset based on 1984—2024 temperature data derived from remote sensing. Using this dataset and integrating the Sen-MK trend test, Hurst exponent, and spatial autocorrelation, this study systematically characterized the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of the UHI effect in Beijing's main urban area over the past four decades. The results indicate that the UHI effect in Beijing's main urban area presented a ring-shaped distribution pattern characterized by higher temperatures in the center and lower temperatures at the periphery. The UHI effect showed an evolutionary trend of weakening in the center, intensifying at the periphery, and remaining stable in general. Meanwhile, the UHI effect followed an overall distribution pattern of clustering at the core, fragmentation, and re-clustering sequentially. Specifically, high-temperature and low-temperature areas were concentrated in the center and northwestern ecological conservation zone of the main urban area, respectively. In contrast, the transition zone between the two areas was scattered along the urban expansion edges. Temporally, the UHI effect in Beijing's main urban area generally followed an evolutionary trend of consolidation at the core, differentiation, and ecological mitigation. The main urban area experienced cumulative warming at the periphery and alternating warming and cooling in the center, with oscillatory variations in the UHI effect occurring locally. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for identifying the long-term evolutionary patterns of the UHI effect in Beijing while also offering a reference for space planning optimization, energy conservation and emission reduction, climate adaptation, and ecological governance in the urban area of Beijing.

       

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