Abstract: The vegetation carbon use efficiency (CUE) acts as a crucial parameter for quantifying the carbon biosequestration capacity. Quantitatively assessing the spatiotemporal change patterns of vegetation CUE and their driving factors will provide critical guidance for regional ecological and production security. This study investigated the spatiotemporal change patterns of vegetation CUE in Shandong Province from 2001 to 2023 and analyzed the future change trends and driving factors. To this end, a series of spatiotemporal data were used, including the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, digital elevation model (DEM) data, soil type data, and meteorological data. Associated data analysis techniques included the Sen's slope estimator, significance test, coefficient of variation, Hurst exponent, and Boruta algorithm. The results indicate that, temporally, Shandong Province exhibited a downward trend in average annual vegetation CUE from 2001 to 2023, with an interannual change trend coefficient of -0.000 3, suggesting slight changes and an overall stable trend over the study period. Spatially, the vegetation CUE averaged 0.51, increasing progressively from west to east. Specifically, high mean CUE values were concentrated in Weihai, Yantai, and Rizhao in eastern Shandong, while low mean values were observed in Liaocheng, Dezhou, and Heze. Across Shandong Province, 52.83% of areas exhibited a downward trend in vegetation CUE, while 39.18% showed an upward trend. Regarding the future change trend, the vegetation CUE is expected to increase in 57.12% of areas, as opposed to a downward trend in 42.88%. These results indicate that the future environment in Shandong Province tends to improve in general. Analysis of driving factors reveals that precipitation and temperature are the primary factors influencing vegetation CUE changes in Shandong Province, with precipitation exerting a slightly stronger overall influence than air temperature, followed by soil type and elevation, while slope and aspect have relatively weaker effects.