Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of land subsidence in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain

Multiple cities across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) Plain face significant challenges from land subsidence, a critical issue severely influencing urban planning and the sustainable development of regional economy. Given this, this study first obtained ground displacement information of the BTH Plain from 2012 to 2023 using persistent scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) technology, followed by a validation using leveling measurements. On this basis, it analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of land subsidence in the plain. Combining groundwater levels and hydrogeological profiles, this study further investigated the causes of land subsidence. Finally, it predicted the future evolution trends of land subsidence in typical subsidence areas of Beijing using a Transformer-based deep learning model. The results indicate that from 2012 to 2015, the BTH Plain exhibited a relatively stable average subsidence rate. During 2016—2017, it experienced a significant increase in the average subsidence rate from -21.6 mm/a to -38.2 mm/a. Since 2018, the subsidence trend has gradually been controlled, with the average subsidence rate decreasing from -22.4 mm/a to -4.5 mm/a. Predictions using the Transformer-based model suggest a continuous deceleration of land subsidence in the Beijing area in the future. By 2030, the regional average subsidence rate is expected to approach zero, aligning with the objectives outlined in the Comprehensive Prevention and Control Plan for Land Subsidence in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain (2019—2035).