Ecological resilience evolution and multi-scenario simulation in Wuhan based on land use/cover changes

This study aims to clarify the ecological resilience of Wuhan City and to safeguard regional ecological stability and sustainable development. To this end, it assessed the spatiotemporal evolution of urban ecological resilience in Wuhan City from 2000 to 2022 using a "resistance-adaptation-resilience" framework. Using the PLUS model, this study further simulated and predicted the spatial distribution patterns of land use/cover and ecological resilience in Wuhan for 2035 under three scenarios-natural development, ecological conservation, and construction priority. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2022, in terms of LUCC, Wuhan City exhibited a fluctuating decline in arable land, grassland, water bodies, and unused land, along with an initial increase followed by a decrease in forested land. It also experienced continuous expansion in construction land, mainly converted from arable land and water bodies. During this period, the city witnessed a generally low and fluctuating downward trend in ecological resilience, with a spatial distribution pattern of "low in the central area and high in the periphery". These changes in ecological resilience were influenced by variations in forest land, water bodies, and construction land. The land cover/use in 2035 is projected to expand in arable land and increase in forest land, water bodies, and construction land under all three scenarios. Notably, the ecological conservation scenario is marked by a significant growth in forest land and water bodies. Moreover, the ecological resilience level is projected to improve under the natural development and ecological conservation scenarios but to decline under the construction priority scenario. Compared to the other two scenarios, the ecological conservation scenario exhibited enhanced ecological resilience grades around the central urban area and along the Yangtze, Hanjiang, and Sheshui Rivers, maintaining spatial connectivity of high - and moderate - resilience zones. The decline in ecological resilience was attributed to the decrease in forest land, water bodies, and arable land, combined with the increase in construction land. According to the current and simulated ecological resilience, the study area can be divided into four ecological control zones to ensure ecological stability. This zoning, combined with strategies like ecological land protection, enhanced conservation and upgrading of arable land, and control over construction land expansion, will contribute to ecological resilience enhancement, sustainable development, and ecological security in Wuhan City.