Comparison and implications of typical land use patterns in arid coastal areas derived based on change chains: A case study of the United Arab Emirates

This study aims to explore the differences in land-use change patterns across Gulf states in arid regions in order to provide a decision-making reference for sustainable land resource management. Using land-use raster datasets, this study developed a vector attribute-based method for tracing land-use change chains. Accordingly, the characteristics and patterns of land-use changes in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were thoroughly analyzed. The results indicate that the land in the UAE is dominated by deserts, with cropland and impervious surfaces representing very low proportions. As a result, the areas of impervious surfaces, cropland, and deserts demonstrate a pyramidal relationship. From 1985 to 2020, land use in the UAE was characterized by the rapid expansion of cropland and impervious surfaces and the shrinkage of deserts. Land use in the UAE primarily varies among impervious surfaces, cropland, sparse vegetation, and sandy land, yet these changes exhibit significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Specifically, coastal impervious surfaces exhibited the most pronounced expansion from 2005 to 2015 (typical chain spectrum: Type 8_F6); increases in cropland mainly occur in Abu Dhabi and central Dubai, especially from 1995 to 2000 (typical chain spectrum: Type 8_C1); and the conversion between sparse vegetation and bare sandy land occurs extensively, with the deserts undergoing ecological degradation from 1985 to 1990 (typical chain spectrum: Type 7_A8) and improvement in vegetation coverage from 1995 to 2000 (typical chain spectrum: Type 8_C7). The coastal area of Abu Dhabi exhibits a gradient differentiation pattern consisting of a coastal urban belt, a transitional oasis belt, and an inland desert belt, with land use evolving from sandy land retreat to green space embedding and then to hard surface expansion. In contrast, the coastal area of Dubai is characterized by the construction of artificial island chains, presenting a capital-dominated hard expansion pattern. The infrastructure-driven land-use pattern, such as artificial island expansion, produces significant short-term economic effects. In contrast, the composite development pattern featuring ecological priority demonstrates higher sustainability. For the two patterns, the former might exacerbate ecological risks, while the latter can balance economic development and ecological protection, providing a more robust long-term development path for arid regions.