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Remote Sensing for Natural Resources    2025, Vol. 37 Issue (2) : 155-163     DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2023353
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Simulating the response of ecosystem services to the changes in production-living-ecological land use under different scenarios in the ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
LI Conghui1(), MA Caihong1(), AN Siwen2, YANG Hang1
1. College of Geographic Sciences and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
2. Second Topographic Survey Team, Ministry of Natural Resources, Xi’an 710000, China
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Abstract  

Exploring the response of ecosystem services to the changes in production-living-ecological land use under different scenarios is critical for the sustainable development of territorial space and the improvement of regional systems. This study investigated the ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Based on the PLUS-MarKov model, it simulated the changes in production-living-ecological land use in the ecological economic belt in 2030 under the natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and urban development scenario (UDS). Moreover, it explored the response characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV) to the changes in production-living-ecological land use. The results show that the production land exhibits both increase and decrease in the Yinchuan and Weining plains. The ecological land is somewhat reduced due to internal structural adjustment and optimization, concentrated in Shapotou, Baijitan, the Yellow River riparian shelterbelt in the north-central Yinchuan Plain, and the loess hilly soil and water conservation area in the south. The land for living continues to increase, expanding from urban to surrounding areas. The NDS reveals a reduced rate of changes in the production-living-ecological land use, while the EPS indicates a reduced rate of shift in ecological land use. In contrast, the UDS shows a higher rate of increase in land for living and higher rates of decrease in ecological and production land. The ESV is improved under the three scenarios, specifically in decreased order of EPS (11.48×108 yuan), UDS (2.74×108 yuan), and NDS (1.89×108 yuan). The ESV improvement areas extend primarily from the north-central Yinchuan Plain, Weining Plain, and Lingyan Platform to the peripheries. The ESV reduction areas show varying distributions under different scenarios. To achieve high-quality development, the ecological economic belt should prioritize ecological protection, prevent the disorderly spreading of land for living, and ensure the retention of production land.
Keywords production-living-ecological land use      PLUS-MarKov model      scenario simulation      ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region     
ZTFLH:  TP79  
Issue Date: 09 May 2025
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Conghui LI
Caihong MA
Siwen AN
Hang YANG
Cite this article:   
Conghui LI,Caihong MA,Siwen AN, et al. Simulating the response of ecosystem services to the changes in production-living-ecological land use under different scenarios in the ecological economic belt along the Yellow River in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2025, 37(2): 155-163.
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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2023353     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2025/V37/I2/155
Fig.1  Overview of the study area
类型 名称 时间 分辨率 数据来源
遥感数据 土地利用数据 2000年、2010年、2020年 30 m×30 m 中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
社会经
济数据		 人口、GDP、夜间灯光数据 2020年 1 km×1 km
道路数据 2020年 / Open Street Map
县(区/市)政府驻地 2020年 / 全国地理信息资源目录服务系统
主要粮食单产值与单价 2000年、2010年、2020年 / 《宁夏统计年鉴》《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》
气候与
环境数据		 土壤类型 2019年 1 km×1 km 中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
年平均气温、年平均降水 2020年 1 km×1 km 国家地球系统科学数据中心
高程 / 30 m×30 m 地理空间数据云
归一化植被指数(normalized diffeverce vegetation index,NDVI) 2020年 30 m×30 m 中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心
Tab.1  Required data description
土地利用
类型		 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地		 未利
用地
耕地 1 1 1 1 1 1
林地 1 1 1 0 1 1
草地 1 1 1 1 1 1
水域 0 0 0 1 0 0
建设用地 1 0 1 0 1 1
未利用地 1 0 1 1 1 1
Tab.2  Land use transfer cost matrix
用地类型 耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设用地 未利用地
NDS 0.25 0.19 0.24 0.41 1.00 0.1
EPS 0.69 0.52 1.00 0.80 0.95 0.1
UDS 0.23 0.18 0.18 0.38 1.00 0.1
Tab.3  Simulation domain weight calculation
Fig.2  Spatial distribution of production-ecological-living land under different simulation scenarios
生态服务分类 2000年 2010年 2020年 2030年(ESV值及与2020年相比变化量)
一级分类 二级分类 NDS 变化量 EPS 变化量 UDS 变化量
供给服务 食物生产 14.83 14.63 14.55 14.48 -0.07 14.66 0.11 14.42 -0.13
原材料生产 6.37 6.30 6.22 6.17 -0.05 6.28 0.06 6.14 -0.08
水资源供给 -1.49 -1.00 -0.42 -0.13 0.29 0.26 0.68 0.05 0.47
调节服务 气体调节 22.65 22.37 22.12 21.93 -0.19 22.29 0.17 21.81 -0.31
气候调节 40.53 39.97 39.33 38.82 -0.51 39.76 0.43 38.54 -0.79
净化环境 19.78 19.97 20.22 20.33 0.11 20.76 0.54 20.37 0.15
水文调节 165.46 168.65 174.24 176.90 2.66 182.99 8.75 178.25 4.01
支持服务 土壤保持 21.62 21.36 21.11 20.92 -0.19 21.31 0.20 20.79 -0.32
保持养分循环 2.89 2.85 2.82 2.80 -0.02 2.84 0.02 2.79 -0.03
生物多样性 18.62 18.50 18.40 18.29 -0.11 18.72 0.32 18.22 -0.18
文化服务 美学景观 9.18 9.15 9.15 9.12 -0.03 9.35 0.20 9.10 -0.05
总计 320.46 322.75 327.72 329.63 1.89 339.22 11.48 330.48 2.74
变化值 2.31 4.99 1.89 11.48 2.74
Tab.4  Simulate the value of individual ESV in different scenarios(unit: 108yuan)
Fig.3  ESV transfer under different scenarios from 2020 to 2030
情景 生产用地 生态用地 生活用地
增值 减值 净值 净值贡献
率/%		 增值 减值 净值 净值贡献
率/%		 增值 减值 净值 净值贡献
率/%
2000年—2020年 23.44 -2.65 68.49 20.90 29.85 -44.03 257.07 78.44 0.70 0.00 2.16 0.66
2020年—NDS情景 2.71 -0.12 44.24 13.42 7.98 -9.05 282.24 85.62 0.37 0.00 3.15 0.96
2020年—EPS情景 2.86 -0.04 45.12 13.30 8.06 -0.03 290.75 85.71 0.63 0.00 3.34 0.98
2020年—UDS情景 3.29 -0.30 45.03 13.64 11.14 -11.47 282.08 85.46 0.09 0.00 2.98 0.90
Tab.5  ESV changes of ecological-living-ecological land were simulated under different scenarios(unit: 108yuan)
Fig.4  Spatial diagram of ESV P and L in 2020 of three scenarios
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