能源需求的快速增长和巨量的能源消费已严重制约中国经济社会的可持续发展。面对日益严峻的能源和环境问题,中国提出了2020年能源消费及煤炭消费总量的双控目标。"十三五"是中国全面建成小康社会的关键时期,作为经济发展的原动力,能源消费快速增长的趋势难以改变。通过测算,在实现既定经济发展目标的情况下,2020年能源缺口将达到6.6亿吨标煤以上。落实"十三五"能源消费总量控制目标,需要从源头入手,狠抓节能不动摇。

To test the validity of this equation the populations of the 124 cities were plotted on doubly logarithmic paper against area measurements (of the same cities) ob- tained from 1:250,000 scale U.S. Army Map Service sheets prepared in 1951- 1956. Despite the evident problem that the built-up urban areas depicted on the maps may not correspond to the administrative boundaries of the cities, and that city shape and size may exhibit regional variations, the data points gener- ally fit the prescribed straight-line pattern (Fig. 3). The regression equation for these data points, as determined by the methods of least-squares, is

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/014311697218485

Changes in electric power consumption patterns of a country over a period of time reflect on its socio‐economic development and energy utilization processes. In the present study, we characterized spatial and temporal changes in electric power consumption patterns over India during 1993 to 2002, using ‘night‐time lights’ data given by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program–Operational Line Scan System (DMSP‐OLS) over the Indian region. The OLS operates in two bands: visible (0.5–0.90208m) and thermal (10.5–12.50208m) and has a unique capability of picking up faint sources of visible–near infrared emissions (lights) at night on the Earth's surface including cities, towns and villages with a DN value ranging from 1 to 63. Night‐time light images for cloud‐free dates given by the DMSP‐OLS from 1993 to 2002 were segregated into respective years and were integrated to generate one ‘Stable light image’ per year. Changes in light scenarios over the Indian region in the decadal time frame were studied using stable lights datasets from 1993 to 2002. Information on changes in the light scenarios was integrated with demographic data to characterize developments in major cities and states of India. Results of the study suggested an increase in population by 17002million and power consumption from 4496202million02kWh to 30635502million02kWh over the country during 1993–2002, which was associated with an overall increase in number of night‐time lights of up to 26% in all states, indicating development in electric power consumption patterns. Correlation analysis between increase in population to the increase in night‐time lights and electric power consumption showed a coefficient of determination, R 2, of 0.59 and 0.56 respectively. Increase in light intensities along the peripheries of major Indian cities was observed, which indicated increased stress on the cities and corresponding development in power consumption patterns during the decadal time frame. Certain states, however, showed a decrease in night‐time lights in some areas, which are primarily attributed to the decreased economic growth trend and poverty and accounted to the scatter observed in the correlation analysis. Results are discussed in the paper.

This paper describes a methodology to assess the evidence of human presence and human activities in the Brazilian Amazonia region using DMSP/OLS night-time satellite sensor imagery. It consists on exploring the potential of the sensor data for regional studies analysing the correlation between DMSP night-time light foci and population, and the correlation between DMSP night-time light foci and electrical power consumption. In the mosaic of DMSP/OLS night-time light imagery from September 1999, 248 towns were detected from a total of 749 munic pios in Amazonia. It was found that the night-time light foci were related to human presence in the region, including urban settlements, mining, industries, and civil construction, observed in ancillary Landsat TM and JERS imagery data. The analysis considering only the state of Par revealed a linear relation ( R 2=0.79) between urban population from the 1996 census data and DMSP night-time light foci. Similarly, electrical power consumption for 1999 was linearly correlated with DMSP night-time light foci. Thus the DMSP/OLS imagery can be used as an indicator of human presence in the analysis of spatial emporal patterns in the Amazonia region. These results are very useful considering the continental dimension of Amazonia, the absence of demographic information between the official population census (every 10 years), and the dynamics and complexity of human activities in the region. Therefore DMSP night-time light foci are a valuable data source for global studies, modelling, and planning activities when the human dimension must be considered throughout Amazonia.

A methodology is presented to accurately estimate electric power consumption from saturated night-time Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS) imagery using a stable light correction. An area correction for the stable light image of DMSP/OLS for the year 1999 was performed and the build-up area rate data were used to clarify the intensity distribution characteristics of the stable light. Based on the spatial distribution characteristics of the stable light, the saturation light of the electric power supply area of Japan was corrected using a cubic regression equation. The regression between the correction calculations by the cubic regression equation and the statistical electric power consumption data was applied in Japan and also in China, India and 10 other Asian countries. The correction method was then evaluated. This study confirms that electric power consumption can be estimated with high precision from the stable light.

能源是国民经济发展的重要支撑,便捷准确地获取能源消费时空动态信息,对于合理制定能源政策具有重要意义.基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据和能源统计数据之间的定量关联,在地级市尺度上模拟了中国1995-2009年能源消费的空间格局,并采用空间自相关分析探讨其时空动态特征.研究表明:基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据模拟中国各地市能源消费具有一定的可行性,该数据能够比较可靠地反映能源消费的时空动态;1995-2009年中国大多数地市的能源消费量较低,中低强度能源消费区土地面积占全国72.66％,高能源消费强度区集中分布在中国东部地区;中国能源消费量存在显著的空间集聚性(历年Moran'sI指数都大于0.4),全国地级市能源消费“高—高”聚集和“低—低”聚集现象明显.

电力消费量是定量衡量电力消费状况的一个基本指标。及时、准确地获取电力消费量的时空动态信息,对于合理配置中国电力资源具有重要的理论和现实意义。利用DMSP/OLS稳定夜间灯光时间序列数据,在县级尺度上模拟重建了中国大陆1995-2008年电力消费的空间格能够局比,较揭可示靠了地中反国映大中陆国同大期陆电力19消95费-20量08的年时电空力动消态费过量程的。时结空果动表态明,:精①度利达用到D70M%S左P/O右L,S数具据有显一定,的占可全行国性总。面②积1中0.国69大%陆的京19津95唐-20、08沪年宁电杭力、消珠费三量角以、中山低东消半费岛级、别辽为中主南,地但区空、间四分川布盆差地异等明大六陆大城19市95群-20地08区年是电中力国消电费力量消表费现最出为比集较中明的显区的域增,长共趋消势耗,了电中力国消3费9.2量3%呈的明电显力增资长源趋。势③的中区国域面积占全国总面积的64.00%。

未来20年是湖北进入高速城市化发展的阶段,同时也是刚性的能源 高需求阶段.本文采用传统的两个经济充量指标湖北城市化率、工业化率数据,并结合DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据这一客观及时全面的指标对湖北未来的能源需 求进行预测.通过面板回归模型得到预测结果,表明工业化与城市化对湖北能源需求有着显著影响,并且湖北能源需求在2011-2024年期间将经历较快速的 增长时期,而在2024年之后,需求增长速度将逐渐减缓.

<p>利用DMSP/OLS遥感夜间灯光数据进行电力消费量等社会经济数据的空间化时, 往往受到像元过饱和、像元溢出现象的影响。利用夜间灯光数据和植被指数(NDVI)之间的互补性构建人居指数, 与NDVI的融合有效减少了夜灯数据的过饱和现象。在人居指数的计算中使用阈值法有效减少了夜灯数据像元溢出效应的影响, 并对其进行了海拔修正。借助修正后的人居指数与电力消费量之间很强的相关关系建立电力消费量空间化模型, 获得了2010 年浙江省1 km&times;1 km分辨率下电力消费量的空间分布。模拟结果显示, 利用修正后的人居指数对浙江省电力消费量模拟的平均相对误差为26%, 表明利用多源遥感数据融合后的人居指数对电力消费量进行空间化的精度较高。</p>

China's rapid economic development in the last 20 years has resulted in increased demand for electricity and ensuing shortages in electric power supply. It is necessary to derive accurate and timely information regarding changing spatio-temporal patterns and trends of electric power consumption to inform future electricity allocation. Night-time annual image composites for 1995 2005 were obtained from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System and were inter-calibrated. The inter-calibrated night-time image composites were used in conjunction with the LandScan 2008 population data to estimate the amounts of electric power consumption in 1995, 2000 and 2005 for China at the province level. The estimated amounts of electric power consumption were then disaggregated to the pixel level. A pixel-based map was produced to show the spatio-temporal changes of electric power consumption from 1995 to 2005, in which 11 regional agglomerations with large increases of electric power consumption had emerged. During the process of producing this spatio-temporal change map, some errors were generated because of the use of single-year LandScan population data, imperfect reference regions for inter-calibration and a single threshold value for delimiting urban areas. However, we believe these errors are limited and acceptable, so we present this method of estimation and disaggregation to show the increases in electric consumption.

本研究基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光影像实现了1992-2010年以市级为基础单元的我国碳排放估算,弥补了统计数据不全、统计口径不一的缺点。从全国、4个经济区和6大城市群3个层面的碳排放分析结果显示,我国CO2排放总量持续增长,各地区、省市增速各不相同,空间聚集程度越来越明显,基本形成了"东部沿海城市高高集聚,西部欠发达城市低低集聚"的格局。人均碳排放强度基本呈现为"东部东北部西部中部",单位GDP碳排放强度则呈现为"东北部和西部较高"、"东部和中部较低"。GDP增长是决定CO2排放总量增长的主导因素,而能源结构、能源利用效率、产业结构是影响碳排放强度的主要原因。对于西部和东北部等以能源和重工业为主导产业的城市,其减排策略应着重能源结构优化和能源利用效率的提高。对于东部和中部等以技术、劳动密集型和轻工业为主导产业的城市,其减排策略应侧重于产业结构调整和转型升级。

国内生产总值(GDP)通常以各种统计资料、统计报表为基础进行核算,费时耗财。本文提出了一种基于DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据测算GDP的新方法。在分析夜间灯光强度与GDP关系基础上,采用回归分析的方法建立了GDP空间化模型,在GIS平台中实现了省级GDP空间化模拟。结果显示,建立的回归模型拟合精度达到0.964,显著性水平低于0.05,通过夜间灯光数据计量省级GDP总量的效率和精度都令人满意,将灯光数据应用于经济分析具有可行性。进一步修正完善模型,将为区域经济研究提供一种新研究方法。

城市是人类生产和消费活动最为集中的区域,带来了大量的能源消耗和碳排放,低碳城市受到国内外学者广泛探讨。本文从低碳开发、低碳经济、低碳环境、城市规模与能源消耗5个方面22个指标构建了低碳城市评价体系,引入遥感影像中的DMSP-OLS夜间灯光数据集与PM2.5浓度反演影像;利用因子分析、聚类分析及空间相关性分析,将2006年及2010年284个地级及以上城市按照低碳水平分为低碳、相对低碳、相对高碳、高碳四类城市;根据驱动力分为环境主导型、居民主导型、城镇化主导型及产业主导型四种城市类型;空间上识别出京津冀、长三角、山东省及珠三角地区具有低碳城市发展集聚效应;低碳城市发展水平受城市行政等级、产业转型等因素影响。

系统分析了DMSP/OLS非辐射标定夜间灯光强度数据本身的固有缺陷,提出了一套完整地对中国区域夜间灯光影像进行校正的技术思路,并基于ArcGIS地理信息平台进行了相应的模型构建,有效去除了灯光影像中非稳定亮值像元的影响以及影像序列中DN值的异常波动,增加了长时间序列夜间灯光影像的连续性和可比性,在数量尺度和空间尺度均取得了较好的校正效果.

京津冀城市群地区是国家经济发展的战略核心区之一,其经济发展与资源环境关系是近年来地理研究的重点领域。本文以京津冀城市群县域为单元,利用PM2.5、NO2遥感反演等数据,设计资源投入—经济效益—环境影响复合生态效率评价指标体系,构建县域单元生态效率评价模型,并利用非期望产出SBM模型对生态效率进行了评价,运用空间自相关分析方法对生态效率的空间效应与空间关联模式进行了检验与分析。结果显示：1资源投入、经济效益与环境影响格局存在明显时空分异,高值区主要分布在京津唐三市及周边部分县区;22006、2010、2014年3个时期京津冀城市群县域单元生态效率均值分别为0.324、0.305、0.347,总体水平较低,并呈现先下降后改善态势,区位、自然本底条件是导致生态效率空间差异的主要原因。3全局Moran＇s I指数分别为0.2539、0.3007、0.3088,表明县域单元生态效率存在空间正向集聚趋势;4县域单元生态效率正向集聚程度越来越显著,邻域单元生态效率差距则有所缩减。

为探索中国典型城市群新增制造业用地结构与布局状况、发展及功能分工特征,本文基于中国土地市场网2009-2013年制造业用地出让数据,通过区位熵、耦合分析、相关分析等方法,分析了长三角、珠三角、京津冀、长江中游和成渝5个典型城市群新增制造业用地分布特征以及城镇体系耦合特征差异.结果表明：①各城市群新增制造业用地差异显著.长三角、珠三角城市群新增制造业发展较为均衡;京津冀、长江中游和成渝城市群发展协调性仍有待提升②新增制造业各行业用地在5个城市群中均呈现出一定的集聚特征,其中原材料等传统产业倾向布局在城市群边缘区及城市低等级区;电子信息产业等新兴产业多集中在核心城市及高等级区.③各城市群内部新增制造业用地市场化机制作用较为充分,地价呈现随等级提升而递增的趋势;城市群核心区市场活跃度较低而骨干区较高.相关结论可为城市群产业布局调整、优化以及制定不同等级区域协调发展战略提供参考.

基于秦岭&#x02014;淮河南北气象站点逐日降水数据和全国0.5&#x000b0;&#x000D7;0.5&#x000b0;逐月降水格网数据,选取16个极端降水指数,辅以趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验和相关分析等气候诊断方法,分析了1960-2013年秦岭&#x02014;淮河南北极端降水时空变化特征,探讨了极端降水变化与ENSO事件的关系。结果表明：①1960-2013年秦岭&#x02014;淮河南北除长江下游降水呈增加趋势外,其他区域降水均呈下降趋势;②极端降水变化主要表现为：降水日数减少,降水强度上升,突发性强降水事件增多,连续性干旱事件增多;在空间上,秦巴山地、长江下游和黄河下游以极端降水强度上升为主,关中平原、巫山山区和四川盆地以极端干旱强度上升为主;③在影响因素方面,秦岭&#x02014;淮河南北极端降水与ENSO事件关系密切。在厄尔尼诺年,秦岭&#x02014;淮河南北春季极端降水偏多,夏季和全年偏少;在拉尼娜年,春季极端降水偏少,秋季和全年偏多。就各个区域而言,在厄尔尼诺年,黄河下游、关中平原、秦巴山地和四川盆地极端降水呈下降趋势,淮河平原极端降水呈上升趋势,长江下游和巫山山区响应并不明显。

快速城镇化带来了城市蔓延现象,而对城市蔓延现象的定量化研究在现有文献中却十分少见,尤其是对适用于大片区域且易于计算的定量化指标仍然很少涉及。因此,设计了一套基于城市群尺度的蔓延指标,包括从夜间灯光(night-time light,NTL)数据中提取的密度、发展分散度、多核心度及向心度4个方面的指标,同时采用这些指标对中国50个城市群区域进行了一系列计算。结果表明,这些指标相互独立,并从各方面揭示了城市群的形态特征,因此能够准确地表示各城市蔓延的程度。研究结果可为政府及规划部门制定城市群相关规划及政策提供基础研究方法,以促进城市群的健康发展。

内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市在过去十几a中经历了经济的飞速发展与城市的快速扩张,目前却面临着经济发展的停滞与城市转型。对鄂尔多斯市城市扩张及其驱动因子在时间及空间尺度上的分析,可为鄂尔多斯市的城镇化发展规划提供参考信息。利用DMSP/OLS夜间灯光(nighttime light,NTL)遥感数据,并结合Landsat影像数据,对鄂尔多斯市2000—2013年间城市扩张进行遥感制图和信息提取;应用基于稳定映射点NTL影像间辐射校正方法和支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)算法,并结合阈值法进行数据校正和建成区面积提取。经分析发现鄂尔多斯市分3个阶段扩张,并提出应用组合分析的方式对城市扩张驱动因子进行定量分析。

<p>国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)能反映一个国家或地区的经济发展状况,构建高精度的特困区GDP空间数据库对扶贫工作的开展具有重要意义。首先通过建立DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据与连片特困区GDP的回归模型,实现利用夜间灯光数据估算特困区GDP; 然后分别对第一和第二、三产业GDP进行空间化建模: 第一产业GDP与土地利用数据相结合建模,第二、三产业GDP与夜间灯光数据相结合建模。研究结果表明,大部分特困区GDP的估算结果较为准确,县级尺度的估算精度达到87.38%; 连片特困区多为GDP低密度区,GDP基本处于50万元/km²以下,西北地区甚至出现大片低于5万元/km²。因此,高精度的连片特困区GDP密度分布图能够准确地反映特困区经济分布状况,为扶贫工作的开展提供数据支持。</p>