Due to the accelerated process of urbanization in China, urban agglomerations have become the core areas for human settlement and economic development. High population and economic density has brought great pressure on water supply. Water scarcity is increasingly becoming one of the most important issues for the sustainable and healthy development of China’s urban agglomerations. In this paper, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the current conditions and future scenarios of urbanization development and water scarcity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration in 2000–2030, by examining the interaction and feedback between the six major subsystems: water supply, water demand, water pollution, population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization. It is found that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the improved Reclaimed Water Reuse System may greatly increase the water supply. However, the speed of population urbanization and economic growth, the spatial structure of urban agglomeration and the water consumption pattern may determine the water demand. Although all scenarios may risk water scarcity in the future at some point, we could detect a comprehensive and relatively rational scenario to balance water scarcity, regional equity, and efficiency. It might help to synthetically understand the coordinated development mode between urbanization and water resources in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration, and provide a useful analytical and decision support tool for scientists and policy-makers to achieve the sustainable urbanization development and water resource management.

With rapid urbanization and industrialization, ecological disorders and environmental degradation have become serious, and the promotion of the coordinated development of the social economy and ecological environment is not only a pressing problem to be solved, but also an important step towards sustainable development. The coordinated development of the social economy and eco-environment is conducive to sustainable development. Considering the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration as a case study, this paper adopts panel data and establishes an index system to evaluate the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between the social economy and ecological environment based on the concept of high-quality development. From the perspective of time and space, the changing laws and characteristics of the CCD are analyzed, and the key factors affecting it are determined using regression analysis. The results show the following: (1) the CCD between the social economy and ecological environment of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration presents a low level overall; (2) the CCD in more developed regions is significantly higher than that in less developed regions; thus, the characteristics of spatial differences are obvious; (3) the urbanization rate, ratio of actual use of foreign capital and GDP, ratio of total export-import volume and GDP, proportion of days with good air quality, and per capita public green space area are the main factors affecting the coordinated development of the social economy and ecological environment in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration; and (4) Chongqing has obvious endogeneity. Finally, corresponding policy recommendations are provided aimed at promoting rapid economic development in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration while focusing on environmental protection and promoting high-quality economic development with ecological environmental protection, while putting forward decision-making suggestions for high-quality development of urban agglomerations.

中国城市群是国家新型城镇化的主体区、国家高质量发展的战略核心区与碳中和的责任区,科技创新驱动对实现城市群的上述主体目标发挥着不可替代的重要作用。如何在新发展格局下依靠科技创新驱动促进中国城市群实现高质量发展和生态环境高水平保护,并逐步建成世界级城市群,是摆在我们面前亟待解决的现实问题。基于这一问题,在第23届中国科学技术协会年会期间,以“科技创新驱动世界级城市群发展与中国城市群高质量崛起”为主题,专门设立了“区域协同发展论坛暨第二届中国城市群发展论坛”,通过应邀的国内外50多位有关城市群及科技协同创新知名专家的系统研讨,普遍认为：全球城市群的发展已进入21世纪的中国新时代,中国城市群高质量发展地位被提升到了前所未有的战略高度,但城市群发展及规划实施中存在着一系列现实问题不容忽视,未来中国城市群高质量发展必须依靠科技创新驱动,把建设创新驱动的智慧型、碳中和型、双循环型和城乡融合型城市群作为中国城市群高质量发展的基本方向。进一步创新研究工作机制,建立协同创新共同体,逐步把中国城市群建成为高水平开放、高质量发展、高品质生活和高效能治理的世界级城市群。

China's urban agglomerations are the main area of national new urbanization, the strategic core area of national high-quality development and the responsibility area of carbon neutrality. The science and technology innovation plays an irreplaceable role in realizing the above main goals of urban agglomerations. How to promote China's urban agglomeration to achieve high-quality development and high-level protection of the ecological environment under the new development pattern, and gradually build a world-class urban agglomeration is a realistic problem to be solved. Based on this issue, during the 23rd Annual Conference of the Chinese Association of Science and Technology, with the theme of "Science and technology innovation driving the development of world-class urban agglomerations and the high-quality rise of China's urban agglomerations", the "Regional Collaborative Development Forum and the Second China Urban Agglomeration Development Forum" was specially set up, through systematic discussions of more than 50 well-known experts at home and abroad on urban agglomerations and science and technology collaborative innovation, it is generally believed that the development of global urban agglomerations of China has entered a new era in the 21st century, and the high-quality development of China's urban agglomerations has been promoted to an unprecedented strategic level. However, there are a series of practical problems in the development and planning implementation of urban agglomerations. In the future, the high-quality development of China's urban agglomerations must rely on scientific and technological innovation, and the construction of innovation-driven intelligence, carbon-neutrality, dual circulation and urban-rural integrated urban agglomerations should be the basic direction of high-quality development of China's urban agglomerations. We should further innovate the research work mechanism, establish a collaborative innovation community, and gradually build China's urban agglomerations into world-class urban agglomerations with high-quality development, high-level openness, high-quality life and efficient governance.

认识城市群城市用地扩张特征、扩张质量及景观生态效应等综合信息将有助于城市群空间高质量发展规划与决策。选取10个不同发育等级的城市群作为研究对象,综合运用城市用地扩张强度指数、城市用地扩张强度差异指数、景观扩张指数、景观格局指数,分析1990—2015年期间城市群城市用地扩张时空特征及景观生态效应,并构建人口、经济与城市用地协同发展指数,据此分析城市用地扩张中“人—地”关系协同程度。结果表明：① 1990—2015年,各个城市群城市用地面积持续增加,建成区的范围不断扩大,扩张强度呈现“上升—下降”的趋势;在2010年之前成熟型城市群的扩张强度最高,2010年之后培育型城市群成为扩张强度最高的类型。② 城市群城市用地扩张总体上呈现不均衡布局的趋势,高速扩张区域主要分布在沿海地区。从全国视角来看,东部高于中、西、东北部,整体城市群快速扩张的中心由东向西移动。③ 城市群城市用地空间扩张模式表现出边缘式和飞地式两种空间扩张模式并存,不同发育等级之间具有明显差异性,成熟型城市群的空间结构较为稳定,其他两种类型的城市群空间结构初具雏形或尚未形成。④ 城市群城市用地扩张“吞没”了郊区和农村地区,破碎化程度、形状的复杂程度较高,景观格局表现出不稳定。⑤ 城市群“人口—土地”协同程度逐步增强,“经济—土地”协同程度整体较高,整体上表现出城市用地扩张质量有所提升。新时期城市群城市用地应严格控制扩张规模,加快中小城市的发展,促进城市群城市用地扩张均衡发展,为城市群国土空间高质量发展提供重要参考。

Comprehensive analysis of the characteristics, quality, and ecological effects of urban land expansion would be extremely valuable in high-quality development planning and decision-making. Using data of ten urban agglomerations of China from 1990 to 2015 at varying levels of urban development, this study analyzed the degree of urban land expansion based on the "human-land" synergistic relationship and examined the spatio-temporal characteristics and landscape ecological effects of urban development. Various development indexes for population, economy, and urban land were evaluated, including the urban land expansion intensity index, the intensity differentiation index, the landscape expansion index, and the pattern index. The results of the study are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2015, the built-up areas in the urban agglomerations expanded continuously, while the expansion intensity showed a fluctuating trend. The highest values of expansion intensity for developed urban agglomerations appeared before 2010, while for the developing areas, the highest values came after 2010. (2) Overall, there was an asymmetrical urban growth among the agglomerations, and the areas with high urban expansion were mainly distributed along the coastal zones. At the national level, the epicenter of rapid urban growth moved from east to west, with the urban expansion in eastern China being much faster compared with the central, western, and northeastern regions. (3) The evolution in urban land use displayed two main spatial patterns, namely edge expansion and outlying, which varied based on the level of urban development. The spatial pattern in the developed urban clusters was more stable, while in the developing areas, the spatial structure started to take shape but have yet to be formed. (4) Urban expansion sprawling over suburban and rural areas resulted in relatively high degrees of fragmentation and structural complexity and instability of the landscape pattern. (5) The man-land synergy in these urban agglomerations increased gradually over time while the economy-land interaction was generally high, indicating an improvement in the overall quality of urban growth. The results of this study highlight the need to have stricter supervision of urban expansion particularly in the early stages of city development, to foster the development of small and middle-sized cities, and to propose a more balanced approach in urban land expansion. The findings here provide valuable lessons for high-quality development of land use in urban agglomerations of China.

基于“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型和熵值法对陕西省十市一区的土地生态系统健康状况进行诊断,分析了2009—2017年间土地生态系统健康等级时空变化趋势,以及影响土地生态系统健康变化的驱动因素。结果表明: 2009—2017年间,陕西省土地生态系统健康水平整体提升,其中,2009—2014年间土地生态系统健康程度较低,2014年后健康状况得到明显改善。西安市、宝鸡市、渭南市和汉中市土地生态系统健康等级高且变化幅度大,延安市、榆林市、安康市土地生态系统健康等级较低且变化幅度小,整体呈陕南地区>关中地区>陕北地区。总体来看,陕西省土地生态系统的压力、状态和响应指数均有所增长,但增速趋缓,2014年以后基本趋于平缓,表明在2014—2017年陕西省土地生态系统处于稳定的健康状态。人口增长、城市化水平、单位耕地化肥负荷、森林覆盖率、工业废水排放达标率和工业固体废物综合利用率是影响陕西省土地生态系统健康变化的主要驱动因素。控制化肥农药使用量、优化土地利用结构和提高土地利用效率是陕西省推进生态文明建设、落实生态保护红线的必要措施。

客观评价和预测我国农村生态环境质量状况及发展趋势,对于保障粮食安全、实现农村经济可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。论文基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型框架,构建了我国农村生态环境质量评价指标体系,分析了2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的动态变化。基于GM(1,1)模型,预测了“十三五”期间我国农村生态环境质量的发展态势。研究结果表明：2000—2015年我国农村生态环境质量的综合评价得分从0.669下降到0.387,农村生态环境质量总体呈现恶化趋势,农村生态环境承受的污染排放压力越来越大,环境治理投入较少,尚未形成对农村生态环境恶化情形的逆转。如果继续延续过去农业经济发展模式,2020年我国农村生态环境质量状况将会持续恶化,与“十三五”绿色发展的良好愿景目标相差甚远。

本文基于1995和2015年的Landsat系列遥感影像,利用主成分分析法确定绿度、湿度、干度、热度4个指标的权重,采用遥感生态指数(RSEI)评价模型,对渭南市1995—2015年的生态环境质量进行监测与分析.结果表明: 1995—2015年,渭南市的生态环境质量总体呈上升趋势,RSEI均值由0.489上升至0.556;生态环境改善的地区主要分布在渭南市中部,占总面积的49.6%;生态环境退化的地区主要分布在韩城市部分矿区和渭南市南部区县(秦岭北麓渭南段),仅占总面积的15.4%.研究区生态环境质量受城市规划建设影响较大,但总体上其生态环境质量有所改善,得益于近年来该市对生态环境的关注与投入.

人类的生存质量与生态环境密切相关,利用遥感技术可快速地进行生态环境质量评价,为区域生态环境的治理、改善以及发展规划提供重要参考。本文以长白山自然保护区为例,选取1995、2007年Landsat5 TM影像和2015年Landsat8 OLI影像,反演得到能反映生态环境的绿度、湿度、热度和干度等指标,利用主成分分析法,依据新型遥感生态指数RSEI对长白山自然保护区1995-2015年的生态环境进行评价,结果表明：①绿度、湿度指标对区域生态环境起正向作用,热度、干度指标对区域生态环境起负向作用,且湿度对生态环境影响较大;②该区域1995、2007、2015年生态指数优良等级所占比例依次为49.520%、66.508%、76.189%,同时RSEI等级变差、不变、变好的比例分别为3.945%、55.598%、40.457%。生态环境质量整体不断改善,说明长白山自然保护区的天然林资源保护工程以及一系列生态保育措施起到了一定作用;而天池周边生态环境质量有所下降可能与旅游活动的快速发展有关;③逐步回归分析的结果表明,所选的各指标均为指示生态环境质量的关键指标;而裸露、干化地表的治理则是改善生态环境质量的关键。

The well-being of the human race is closely related to the ecological environment. In the past few decades, indicators retrieved from remote sensing data have been increasingly more widely applied to ecological environment evaluation for their advantages of spatial visualization, and remote sensing technology offers important reference to regional ecological environment management, improvement, and development planning by quickly assessing regional ecological environment quality. Remote sensing ecological index (RSEI), constructed by four indicators including green degree, humidity degree, heat degree, and dry degree retrieved from remote sensing images, can reflect ecological environment status. RSEI is based on real-time remote sensing images and accordingly more capable of quick evaluation of temporal and spatial changes of ecological environment quality. In this article, Landsat5 TM images from 1995 and 2007 and Landsat8 OLI images from 2015 were used as data source to retrieve values of the four indicators to construct the RSEI by the principal component analysis method, and Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve ecological environment quality from 1995 to 2015 was evaluated using the RSEI. The result shows: (1) The green degree and humidity degree have an positive effect on promoting the ecological environment quality of the region while the heat degree and dry degree have a restraining effect on the regional ecological environment quality, and the humidity degree is more significant than the other three indicators. (2) In this region, the proportion of excellent and good RSEI classes accounted for 49.5%, 66.5%, and 76.2% of the total area in 1995, 2007, and 2015. Meanwhile, the degenerated, unchanged, and improved RSEI classes were 3.9%, 55.6%, and 40.5% of the total area respectively, indicating that the overall ecological environment quality has gradually improved. To some extent this is attributed to the Natural Forest Resources Protection Project and a series of ecological conservation measures taken in the Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve area. Although the overall ecological environment quality of the study area has gradually improved, the ecological environment quality around Tianchi has declined. This area has a relatively fragile ecological environment and suffers from high intensity of tourism activities. The decline in ecological environment quality may be attributed to the increasingly intense tourism activities. (3) The stepwise regression analysis results show that each of the selected indicators is key to indicating the ecological environment quality, and the model prediction result reveals that the control of barren and dry surfaces is a critical step for improving the ecological environment quality.

21世纪以来,我国在经济快速发展的同时高度重视生态环境保护,一系列生态修复工程和空间管控措施使生态状况发生了巨大变化;然而目前对于全国生态状况宏观格局的认识仍十分有限。借助 Google Earth Engine（GEE）遥感云计算平台,采用主成分分析方法和MODIS数据构建的绿度NDVI、热度LST、湿度WET和干度NDSI四个指标,生成长时间序列的遥感生态指数RSEI数据集,完整刻画了中国2000年来生态状况的时空连续变化格局。研究发现:在空间格局上,东南沿海地区生态状况优于西北地区;变化趋势上,全国生态状况除上海、西藏和澳门之外均显著改善,RSEI增长最多的三个省份为山西、陕西和河北。进一步采用遥感云计算定量评价了2000年来生态状况变化的宏观格局,以期为国土空间管控和生态保护提供科学支持。

利用2000和2017年Landsat5/TM和Landsat8/OLI影像,基于遥感生态指数(RSEI)模型,结合2000—2017年南京市气象观测数据和社会经济数据,对南京及其特色生态区域的生态环境变化进行分析与评估,结果表明: 2000—2017年,南京市RSEI平均值由0.626降至0.618;将RSEI值分成差、较差、一般、良和优5个等级,良好以上面积占比由61.0%降至57.1%,较差以下等级面积占比略有上升;与2000年相比,2017年南京市生态质量变好的面积占比为34.5%,变差的为34.7%,30.8%的面积基本不变,其中,主城区的生态质量明显好转,生态质量好转的面积超过了变差的面积,而新城区和郊区生态质量明显恶化,生态质量变差的面积超过了好转的面积;在3个生态保护区中,紫金山生态质量明显好于老山和江心洲;城镇化率与RSEI呈极显著负相关关系,相关系数达-0.91。城市化进程总体上会对生态环境产生负面影响,但严格的保护和管理措施可以使良好的生态环境得以保持甚至改善。

空间分异是自然和社会经济过程的空间表现,也是自亚里士多德以来人类认识自然的重要途径。地理探测器是探测空间分异性,以及揭示其背后驱动因子的一种新的统计学方法,此方法无线性假设,具有优雅的形式和明确的物理含义。基本思想是：假设研究区分为若干子区域,如果子区域的方差之和小于区域总方差,则存在空间分异性;如果两变量的空间分布趋于一致,则两者存在统计关联性。地理探测器q统计量,可用以度量空间分异性、探测解释因子、分析变量之间交互关系,已经在自然和社会科学多领域应用。本文阐述地理探测器的原理,并对其特点及应用进行了归纳总结,以利于读者方便灵活地使用地理探测器来认识、挖掘和利用空间分异性。

改革开放以来,中国经济增长促进了建筑用地的快速增加,并在很大程度上影响着区域生态质量.本文以东南沿海经济快速增长的福建省晋江市为例,利用遥感技术重点研究经济快速增长导致的建筑用地变化及其对区域生态质量的影响.基于晋江市1996和2015年的Landsat遥感影像,利用建筑用地指数(IBI)提取建筑用地信息,并进行建筑用地变化分析;同时利用遥感生态指数(RSEI)对生态质量进行评价,定量分析城镇建筑用地变化与生态质量变化之间的关系.结果表明: 1996—2015年,晋江市建筑用地面积共增加68.54 km²,增幅达45%,建筑用地扩展强度为0.55.建筑用地的增加导致该市生态质量总体下降,RSEI均值从1996年的0.532下降到2015年的0.460,降幅达13.5%;生态优良等级所占面积的比例从1996年的39%下降到 2015年的21%.建筑用地扩展强度与生态质量呈显著负相关关系.

Increasing human activities have caused significant global ecosystem disturbances at various scales. There is an increasing need for effective techniques to quantify and detect ecological changes. Remote sensing can serve as a measurement surrogate of spatial changes in ecological conditions. This study has improved a newly-proposed remote sensing based ecological index (RSEI) with a sharpened land surface temperature image and then used the improved index to produce the time series of ecological-status images. The Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimator were employed to evaluate the significance of the trend of the RSEI time series and the direction of change. The change vector analysis (CVA) was employed to detect ecological changes based on the image series. This RSEI-CVA approach was applied to Fujian province, China to quantify and detect the ecological changes of the province in a period from 2002 to 2017 using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The result shows that the RSEI-CVA method can effectively quantify and detect spatiotemporal changes in ecological conditions of the province, which reveals an ecological improvement in the province during the study period. This is indicated by the rise of mean RSEI scores from 0.794 to 0.852 due to an increase in forest area by 7078 km2. Nevertheless, CVA-based change detection has detected ecological declines in the eastern coastal areas of the province. This study shows that the RSEI-CVA approach would serve as a prototype method to quantify and detect ecological changes and hence promote ecological change detection at various scales.

Climate change has been a prominent issue in the last decade. Climate change on a global scale does not necessarily have the same effect in different regions. Rainfall is a crucial weather element related to climate change. Rainfall trends analysis is an appropriate step in assessing the impact of climate change on water availability and food security. This study examines rainfall variations and changes at West Kalimantan, focusing on Mempawah and Kubu Raya from 2000-2019. The Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope estimator test, which can determine rainfall variability and long-term monotonic trends, were utilized to analyze 12 rainfall stations. The findings revealed that the annual rainfall pattern prevailed in all locations. Mempawah region tends to experience a downward trend, while Kubu Raya had an upward trend. However, a significant trend (at 95% confidence level) was identified in Sungai Kunyit with a slope value of -33.20 mm/year. This trend indicates that Sungai Kunyit will become drier in the future. The results of monthly rainfall analysis showed that significant upward and downward trends were detected in eight locations. Rainfall trends indicate that climate change has occurred in this region.

Determination of the threshold by Gamma distribution function and study on spatial and temporal change of precipitation extremes are based on the daily precipitation data of 93 stations during the period 1959-2002 in Northeast China. The main results are summarized as follows: The precipitation extremes’ thresholds decreased gradually from the southeast littoral areas to the northwestern inland. Precipitation extremes were concentrated in June-September, and the increasing was a catastrophe during the period 1985-2002. The probability of the precipitation extremes successively occurred was greater, in which the neighbouring extremes separated by a time gap of 1-5 days was 23.7%. The total extremes increased especially in the lower reaches of the Songhua River and the Mudanjiang River,and the upper reaches of the Liaohe River,as the same with the precipitantion extreme with the time gap of 1-5 days.

拉萨城市圈是西藏自治区生态环境与城镇化作用突出的区域,近年来已经出现草场退化、土壤沙化等生态环境问题,对该区域生态质量状况的监测迫在眉睫,但目前又缺少对该区域精细尺度的生态质量状况研究。鉴于此,论文利用Google Earth Engine遥感大数据平台的并行计算优势,基于Landsat TM/ETM+卫星影像,通过遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)方法监测了拉萨城市圈1994—2017年生态质量的时空变化,深入分析了生态质量变化的气候驱动因子和土地利用转移因子,探索了气候综合驱动的时空分布特征及其变化。结果表明：① 在1994—2017年期间,拉萨城市圈的生态质量良好,在空间上呈现自西南向东北逐渐降低趋势,生态质量整体有改善趋势,改善比重为45.98%;② 热度是RSEI的内部主控因素,对RSEI产生负向影响,体现了气候变暖对研究区生态质量的抑制作用;③ 蒸汽压亏缺、气候水分亏缺是生态质量变化的主要气候驱动因子,草地向其他用地的转移是主要的土地利用驱动因子;④ 气候综合驱动在研究期间整体有减弱趋势,分布格局自西南向东北逐渐增强。论文对拉萨城市圈生态质量状况的监测及其驱动力的深入研究,能够为高原生态环境的保护和西藏地区城镇化的健康发展提供科学指引。

The Lhasa urban circle is a prominent area of ecological environment change and urbanization in the Tibet Autonomous Region. In recent years, there have been ecological and environmental problems such as grassland degradation and soil desertification. The monitoring of the ecological quality of the region is urgent, but currently there is a lack of fine-scale monitoring of ecological quality status in the area. In view of this gap, by taking advantage of the parallel computing capacity of the Google Earth Engine remote sensing big data platform and based on Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite imagery, this study used the remote sensing ecological index method to monitor the temporal and spatial changes of the ecological quality of the Lhasa urban circle from 1994 to 2017, analyzed the climatic and land use transfer factors of ecological quality changes, and explored the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of comprehensive climate driven ecological quality changes. The results show that: 1) During 1994-2017, the ecological quality of the Lhasa urban circle was good, showing a gradual decrease in space from the southwest to the northeast, and the overall ecological quality showed an improving trend, with an improvement proportion of 45.98%. 2) Heat has been the main internal controlling factor of ecological quality changes, which had a negative impact. 3) Vapor pressure deficit and climate water deficit have been the main climatic driving factors of ecological quality changes, and the transfer of grassland has been the main driving factor of land use. 4) Comprehensive climatic driving force has weakened in the past 20 years, and the impact has gradually increased from the southwest to the northeast. The in-depth analysis of this study may provide a scientific guidance for the protection of the plateau ecological environment and the healthy development of urbanization in Tibet.