基于TRMM数据与SPI指数的广西地区旱涝演变分析

doi:10.6046/gtzyyg.2020166

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摘要

干旱是一种影响大、受灾重且恢复周期长的自然灾害,广西是农业大省,对广西地区进行干旱情况分析及预测对该地防灾减灾具有重要意义。通过对广西地区1998—2019年的降雨情况进行分析,并引入标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI),验证了热带降雨测量卫星(tropical rainfall measuring mission,TRMM)数据在广西地区的适用性,研究了广西地区22 a间旱涝演变情况,并对未来广西地区旱涝变化趋势做出预测。结果表明: ①TRMM 3B43降雨数据与地面台站实测数据具有高度相关性,适用于广西地区的干旱监测; ②广西地区旱涝灾害频繁,平均每6 a就会有范围较大的洪涝事件发生; 每2~3 a 就会有范围较大的严重的干旱事件发生; ③广西地区夏季降雨量最大,冬季最小,且降雨总体呈现“东多西少”的格局; ④根据结果可以预测,2020年广西地区整体没有较大的干旱和洪涝事件发生,部分城市将会出现轻度洪涝和轻度干旱的情况。

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	晏红波
	韦晚秋
	卢献健
	黄俞惠

关键词 ： TRMM数据, SPI, 干旱分析, 广西

Abstract：

Drought is a kind of natural disaster with great influence, heavy disaster and long recovery period. As Guangxi is a large agricultural region, it is of great significance to analyze and forecast the drought situation in Guangxi for disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the authors analyzed the rainfall in Guangxi from 1998 to 2019, and introduced the standardized precipitation index (SPI) SPI drought index to verify the applicability of tropical rainfall measurement mission (TRMM) data in Guangxi. In addition, the evolution of drought in Guangxi in the past 22 years was studied, and the trend of drought change in Guangxi was predicted. The results are as follows: ① TRMM 3B43 rainfall data have a high correlation with the measured data of ground stations, which proves that TRMM3b43 rainfall data are suitable for drought monitoring in Guangxi. ② Drought and flood disasters occur frequently in Guangxi, with a large range of flood events every 6 years and serious drought events every 2~3 years. ③ The rainfall in Guangxi is the largest in summer and the smallest in winter, and the overall rainfall pattern is “more in the east and less in the west”. ④ It is estimated that there would be no major drought and flood events in Guangxi in 2020; nevertheless, some cities would have mild floods and mild droughts.

Key words： TRMM data SPI drought analysis Guangxi

收稿日期: 2020-06-11 出版日期: 2021-03-18

ZTFLH:

TP79

基金资助:广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室主任基金项目“喀斯特地表土壤水分定量遥感反演中的关键问题研究”(15-140-07-17);“西南喀斯特地区地表关键要素定量遥感反演方法研究”共同资助(16-380-25-03)

通讯作者: 卢献健

作者简介: 晏红波(1983-)女,博士,副教授,主要从事遥感数据处理及其应用方面的研究。Email: 56403075@qq.com。

引用本文:

晏红波, 韦晚秋, 卢献健, 黄俞惠. 基于TRMM数据与SPI指数的广西地区旱涝演变分析[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2021, 33(1): 158-166.
YAN Hongbo, WEI Wanqiu, LU Xianjian, HUANG Yuhui. A study of drought and flood evolution in Guangxi based on TRMM data and SPI drought index. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2021, 33(1): 158-166.

链接本文:

https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020166 或 https://www.gtzyyg.com/CN/Y2021/V33/I1/158

Fig.1 广西地理位置

Fig.2 数据处理流程

Tab.1 SPI值对应旱涝等级

Tab.2 TRMM数据与地面台站数据相关性分析

Fig.3 由TRMM数据计算的1998—2019年SPI(12)分布

Fig.4 1998—2019年旱涝发生频率统计

Fig.5-1 由TRMM数据反演的广西1998—2019年四季平均降水量分布

Fig.5-2 由TRMM数据反演的广西1998—2019年四季平均降水量分布

Fig.6 由TRMM数据反演的广西1998—2019年平均降水量分布图

Tab.3 回归分析法广西降雨旱涝变化趋势

Fig.7 广西喀斯特区域分布

Fig.8 2020年广西旱涝趋势预测

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