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Remote Sensing for Land & Resources    2020, Vol. 32 Issue (4) : 182-189     DOI: 10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.23
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Estimation of electric power consumption using nighttime light remote sensing data based on K-Means city classification algorithm
ZHANG Li1,2(), XIE Yanan1, QU Chenyang2,3, WANG Mingquan2,3, CHANG Zheng2,3,4, WANG Maohua2,3()
1. Key Laboratory of Specialty Fiber Optics and Optical Access Networks, Joint International Research Laboratory of Specialty Fiber Optics and Advanced Communication, Shanghai Institute of Advanced Communication and Data Science, Shanghai University, Shanghai 201210, China
2. Shanghai Carbon Data Research Center, Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China
3. CAS Key Laboratory of Low-Coal Conversion Science and Engineering, Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Shanghai 201210, China
4. Dalian National Laboratory for Clean Energy, Dalian 116023, China
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Abstract  

In order to reduce the error in estimating urban electric power consumption by nighttime light images, it is necessary to consider the development status of sample areas and classify the samples before estimation. In this paper, the NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data from 263 prefecture-level cities in China’s mainland in 2015 were selected to estimate urban electric power consumption. A K-Means city classification method based on light structure rather than traditional statistical data is proposed. The authors used this method to divide the samples into 5 types and estimate the electric power consumption. A comparison of the estimated results with those from other classification methods shows the following regularity: The mean relative error and root mean square error of the estimated results are 32.02% and 57.04, decreasing by 25 and 3.39 percentage points compared with the estimated results without classification respectively. The proportion of high-precision cities in the estimation results is 53.99%, increasing by 13.59 percentage points compared with estimated result without classification, and is the highest proportion among values of all methods. Compared with the estimated results without classification, 152 cities have lower estimated errors. The performance of this method is similar to the optimal performance of other classification methods.

Keywords NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data      electric power consumption      city classification      K-Means algorithm     
:  TP79  
Corresponding Authors: WANG Maohua     E-mail: zhangli02@sari.ac.cn;wangmh@sari.ac.cn
Issue Date: 23 December 2020
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Li ZHANG
Yanan XIE
Chenyang QU
Mingquan WANG
Zheng CHANG
Maohua WANG
Cite this article:   
Li ZHANG,Yanan XIE,Chenyang QU, et al. Estimation of electric power consumption using nighttime light remote sensing data based on K-Means city classification algorithm[J]. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2020, 32(4): 182-189.
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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020.04.23     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2020/V32/I4/182
数据名称 数据描述 数据来源
NPP-VIIRS卫星夜间灯光影像 年数据,空间分辨率为15"(弧度) NOAA-NGDC(http: //ngdc.noaa.gov/viir)
全社会用电量 市辖区,亿kWh 《中国城市统计年鉴》
年末总人口 市辖区,全市,万人 《中国城市统计年鉴》
地区GDP 市辖区,全市,万元 《中国城市统计年鉴》
第一、二、三产业GDP比例 市辖区,全市,% 《中国城市统计年鉴》
常住人口城镇化率 各省份,城市,% 各省市统计年鉴
2015年中国地级市行政边界文件 .shp格式文件 中国科学院资源环境数据云平台(http: //www.resdc.cn/data.aspx?DATAID=201)
Tab.1  Data source and description
Fig.1  Boston matrix
绝对指标(阈值) 相对指标
(阈值=1)
第一类
城市
第二类
城市
第三类
城市
第四类
城市
城镇人口增长率(0.02) 相对城镇人口比例 26 81 121 35
市辖区人口增长率(0.04) 相对市辖区人口比例 15 14 93 141
市辖区GDP增长率(0.02) 相对市辖区GDP比例 15 57 51 140
市辖区第三产业GDP增长率(0.01) 相对市辖区第三产业GDP比例 15 49 56 143
  
聚类方法 CP均值 CP标准差 SP均值 SP标准差
K-Means 0.031 0.000 0 0.18 0.000 4
K-Medois 0.032 0.000 0 0.17 0.007 9
FCM 0.031 0.000 1 0.17 0.025 2
GMM 0.057 0.000 7 0.16 0.021 3
Tab.3  Mean and standard deviation of CP and SP
Fig.2  CP and SP values of 10 times clustering
Fig.3  Variance of clustering center varies with the number
Fig.4  Distribution features of cluster central
类别 个数 灯光分布特征 代表性城市
第一类城市 44 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1以下,城区灯光几乎很少 张掖、平凉、绥化、黑河
第二类城市 65 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e1之间,城区灯光基本明朗 鞍山、吉林、黄山、西宁
第三类城市 91 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e0之间,城区灯光基本明朗,和周边非城区的亮度差异明显 石家庄、徐州、北海、兰州
第四类城市 45 像元亮度值集中分布在e-1~e2之间,城区高亮度灯光较多,部分低亮度灯光分布于郊区 北京、天津、合肥、重庆
第五类城市 18 数量较少,城市化基本完成,几乎没有低亮度地区 上海、南京、无锡、舟山、福州、成都、深圳、珠海
Tab.4  Result of K-means city classification method
Fig.5  Correlation between the city’s NTL and EPC
Fig.6  Correlation between NTL and EPC in five types of cities
城市类型 城市个数 R/%
不分类 K-Means分类
第一类城市 44 57.49 44.05
第二类城市 65 44.64 45.17
第三类城市 91 48.10 41.96
第四类城市 45 35.17 33.05
第五类城市 18 18.50 15.22
合计/平均值 263 42.37 32.02
Tab.5  Comparison between the EPC estimation results in K-means city classification method and no classification
估算方法 高精度 中精度 低精度
不分类 47.53 29.28 23.19
K-Means分类 53.99 26.99 19.01
Tab.6  Comparison between EPC estimation accuracy in K-Means city classification method and no classification(%)
Di (-,-0.25] (-0.25,0] (0,0.25] (0.25,+)
比例/% 11.79 46.01 34.98 7.22
Tab.7  Comparison between EPC estimation error in K-Means city classification method and no classification
分类方法 R/% RMSE 高精度/% 中精度/% 低精度/% D>0/%
不分类 42.37 59.04 47.53 29.28 23.19 -
经济分区 38.37 63.23 50.19 28.13 21.68 50.57
地理分区 34.05 53.16 52.47 28.13 19.40 52.09
人口规模 31.06 53.76 52.09 28.51 19.40 53.99
波士顿矩阵-城镇人口比例 32.62 57.61 51.34 30.41 18.25 56.27
波士顿矩阵-市辖区人口比例 32.03 59.20 53.99 27.37 18.64 58.55
波士顿矩阵-市辖区GDP比例 31.66 59.78 49.42 32.31 18.27 61.21
波士顿矩阵-市辖区第三产业GDP比例 32.13 58.09 50.95 31.56 17.49 55.13
K-Means算法 32.02 57.04 53.99 26.99 19.01 57.80
Tab.8  Comparison of EPC estimation results between K-Means city classification method and traditional classification method
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