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Remote Sensing for Natural Resources    2022, Vol. 34 Issue (1) : 238-248     DOI: 10.6046/zrzyyg.2021102
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Simulation and development mode suggestions of the spatial pattern of “ecology-agriculture-construction” land in Jiangsu Province
WU Yijie1,2(), KONG Xuesong1()
1. School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
2. School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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Abstract  

This study aims to assist Jiangsu Province in selecting the regional development modes suitable for its local conditions. To this end, this study identified the driving factors in the evolution of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province by comprehensively using three regression methods (i.e., Logistic, Auto-Logistic, and SBS-Logistic). Then, this study simulated the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province in 2030 under four scenarios using the Markov-CLUES model. The results are as follows. ①The accuracy of the three regression methods was in the order of Auto-Logistic > SBS-Logistic > Logistic. The ROC values of the three land use types obtained using the Auto-Logistic regression method were all over 0.75. The Markov-CLUES model performed well in the verification simulation of the land use pattern in Jiangsu Province during 2005—2018, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.758 according to the accuracy evaluation. ②The rapid development in the “Three Circles” and “Four Lines” areas will be guaranteed under the scenario of natural growth in 2030. However, some rivers will narrow, threatening food security and leading to weak development sustainability. For the scenario of ecological protection, the environment of river canals and areas surrounding lakes will be greatly improved by controlling and managing ecology. For the scenario of cultivated land protection, high-quality cultivated land in the main grain-producing areas will be effectively protected, and the cultivated land area in northern and central Jiangsu will obviously increase. The dual protection of both ecology and cultivated land will allow for strong sustainable development and the effective restriction of the disorderly expansion of construction land in 2030. However, the contradiction between demand and supply of construction land will be prominent in a short term. ③It is advisable to adopt the development mode of protecting ecology in the Taihu Lake, the Huai River basin, the conservation areas of Yangtze River wetland, and coastal areas, to adopt the development mode of protecting cultivated land in the Subei and Suzhong plains, and to adopt the development mode of protecting both ecology and cultivated land in the five cities in southern Jiangsu. Given the further implementation of the development strategy along the Yangtze River, the development mode of natural growth can be adopted in Yangzhou and Taizhou cities in central Jiangsu Province. This study revealed the spatio-temporal evolutionary laws of the spatial pattern of ecology-agriculture-construction land in Jiangsu Province. The simulation of the spatial pattern under various scenarios will provide decision support for Jiangsu Province to achieve regional development modes suitable for local conditions and assist Jiangsu Province in forming the spatial pattern of land where ecology-agriculture-construction land couples mutually and develops in a coordinated manner.
Keywords SBS-Logistic regression      Auto-Logistic regression      CLUE-S model      regional development mode      “ecology-agriculture-construction” land;      Jiangsu Province     
ZTFLH:  TP79  
Corresponding Authors: KONG Xuesong     E-mail: 2780296299@qq.com;xuesongk@whu.edu.cn
Issue Date: 14 March 2022
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Yijie WU
Xuesong KONG
Cite this article:   
Yijie WU,Xuesong KONG. Simulation and development mode suggestions of the spatial pattern of “ecology-agriculture-construction” land in Jiangsu Province[J]. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2022, 34(1): 238-248.
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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/zrzyyg.2021102     OR     https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2022/V34/I1/238
主导功
能用地		 LUCC分类体系中的用地类型及其序号
生态用地 21 有林地; 22 灌木林; 23 疏林地; 24 其他林地
31 高覆盖度草地; 32 中覆盖度草地; 33 低覆盖度草地
41 河渠; 42 湖泊; 43 水库坑塘; 44 永久性冰川雪地; 45 滩涂; 46 滩地
62 戈壁; 63 盐碱地; 64 沼泽地; 65 裸土地; 66 裸岩石质地; 67 其他
99 海洋
农业用地 11 水田; 12 旱地
建设用地 51城镇用地; 52 农村居民点; 53 其他建设用地
Tab.1  Dominant functional land classification system
驱动因子 Logistic回归 Auto-Logistic回归
生态用地 农业用地 建设用地 生态用地 农业用地 建设用地
高程 0.017 210 -0.012 720 0.000 434 0.014 525 -0.009 122 —
坡度 0.154 952 -0.102 597 -0.007 944 0.147 442 -0.086 576 -0.006 688
GDP密度 0.000 102 -0.000 113 0.000 063 0.000 124 -0.000 064 0.000 047
人口密度 -0.000 420 -0.000 169 0.000 380 -0.000 437 -0.000 227 0.000 342
到主要城镇的距离 -0.000 017 0.000 006 -0.000 008 -0.000 004 -0.000 006 0.000 002
到农村居民点的距离 0.000 924 -0.000 475 -0.000 384 0.000 957 -0.000 489 -0.000 025
到河渠的距离 -0.000 021 0.000 014 -0.000 015 -0.000 018 0.000 017 -0.000 015
到湖泊和水库坑塘的距离 -0.000 651 0.000 148 0.000 043 -0.000 647 0.000 110 0.000 036
到铁路的距离 0.000 007 -0.000 006 — 0.000 002 -0.000 007 -0.000 001
到公路的距离 0.000 231 -0.000 141 -0.000 066 0.000 201 -0.000 114 -0.000 076
空间自相关变量 — — — 0.796 555 -0.973 794 3.397 070
常量 -2.095 766 1.608 611 -1.748 867 -1.818 763 1.347 638 0.147 740
ROC检验值 0.873 0.692 0.721 0.887 0.773 0.856
Tab.2  Results of Logistic and Auto-Logistic regression analysis
SBS-Logistic
回归分析		 ROC检验值 ∑ ROC ∑ ROC ¯
抽样间
隔(像元)		 抽样比
例/%		 生态
用地		 农业
用地		 建设
用地
1 50 0.872 0.810 0.784 2.466 2.468 4
40 0.872 0.810 0.789 2.471
30 0.872 0.810 0.786 2.468
20 0.872 0.810 0.786 2.468
10 0.872 0.809 0.788 2.469
2 30 0.871 0.809 0.787 2.467 2.470 8
24 0.872 0.811 0.785 2.468
18 0.873 0.810 0.793 2.476
12 0.872 0.812 0.789 2.473
6 0.871 0.810 0.789 2.470
3 25 0.872 0.810 0.784 2.466 2.467 8
20 0.872 0.812 0.783 2.467
15 0.872 0.812 0.781 2.465
10 0.872 0.810 0.790 2.472
5 0.872 0.811 0.786 2.469
4 20 0.872 0.811 0.788 2.471 2.468 0
16 0.871 0.810 0.784 2.465
12 0.872 0.809 0.788 2.469
8 0.871 0.811 0.783 2.465
4 0.872 0.809 0.789 2.470
5 15 0.869 0.809 0.774 2.452 2.453 6
12 0.870 0.806 0.783 2.459
9 0.869 0.810 0.766 2.445
6 0.871 0.808 0.773 2.452
3 0.871 0.809 0.780 2.460
Tab.3  Results of SBS-Logistic regression analysis
Fig.1  Simulation map and current map of Jiangsu Province’s land use pattern in 2018
Fig.2  Simulation results of land use pattern evolution of Jiangsu Province under four scenarios
发展情景 生态用地面积 农业用地面积 建设用地面积
自然增长情景 1 659 861.00 5 791 450.50 2 541 411.00
生态保护情景 1 780 224.75 5 818 432.50 2 394 065.25
耕地保护情景 1 729 966.50 6 095 470.50 2 167 285.50
生态与耕地双保护情景 1 793 749.50 6 007 160.25 2 191 812.75
Tab.4  Area of three types of land use under four development scenarios(hm2)
Fig.3  Area transfer between three types of land under four scenarios
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