A study of runoff scenario prediction in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River based on SWAT model

doi:10.6046/gtzyyg.2020028

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Abstract

The main driving factors of runoff change are climate change and land use. In order to accurately predict the runoff change trend in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River in the future, the authors predicted runoff changes under the two land-use change modes based on SWAT model, weather generator BCC /RCG-WG and Ca-Markov model. The setting of land-use scenarios was based on the prediction results of Ca-Markov model. The results show that, in the future, the runoff in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River will show an obvious upward trend, and the increase rate of runoff under the scenario of increasing forest land is less than that in the natural ecological scenario, which may be related to the increase of ecological water demand caused by the increase of forest land. Therefore, the protection of water resources in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River is not feasible. Researchers should follow the natural growth law of vegetation, continue the current ecological protection policy, try to reduce man-made pollution and improve the ideological awareness of water conservation.

Keywords SWAT model CA Markov model BCC/RCG-WG runoff prediction upper reaches of Hanjiang River

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TP79

Issue Date: 18 March 2021

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	Xinping MA
	Tao WU
	Yuyang YU

Cite this article:

Xinping MA,Tao WU,Yuyang YU. A study of runoff scenario prediction in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River based on SWAT model[J]. Remote Sensing for Land & Resources, 2021, 33(1): 174-182.

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https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/10.6046/gtzyyg.2020028 OR https://www.gtzyyg.com/EN/Y2021/V33/I1/174

Fig.1 Overview of the research area

Fig.2 Sub basin division and spatial data preparation

Fig.3 Comparison of simulated and observed monthly runoff during the period of periodic and validation

Fig.4 Driver data atlas

Fig.5 Land use classification map and simulation map for 2015

Tab.1 Value of accuracy testing indicators for land use simulation results in 2015

Fig.6 Spatial distribution map of land use scenarios in 2025

Tab.2 Land use scenario in 2025(%)

Fig.7 Trends of future runoff change under different scenarios

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