Land use change and ecological security evaluation of Jiangsu Province in the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project
FANG Guohua1, ZHOU Lei1, WEN Xin1, XUE Liuyu2, YAN Chunhua1
1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; 2. Jiangsu Leading Group Office for the South to North Water Diversion Project, Nanjing 210098, China
Abstract：In this paper, the authors studied land use changes of the eastern route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu Province based on land use data from 2000 to 2010, and simulated and predicted land use patterns from 2010 to 2020 based on CA -Markov model. “Pressure-State-Response” (PSR) model was used to establish the evaluation index system of land ecological security in the hope of evaluating the ecological security of land use in different periods. Some conclusions have been reached: 1) The main land use type in the area was cultivated land and the area of forest land, water was enlarged, and a large amount of cultivated land was changed into urban and rural areas. 2) The simulation results of land use pattern in 2010 based on CA-Markov model indicated that the correct grid number reached 99.1% compared with the actual one and the Kappa coefficient reached 0.99, which could reflect change trend of land use pattern in the area. 3) The ecological safety of the region showed gradually improvement and, for the year 2000, 2010, 2020, the land ecological security index was 0.51, 0.68 and 0.73, respectively achieving the early warning, sensitivity and good grades, which indicated coordinate development of population, resources, environment and society.
方国华, 周磊, 闻昕, 薛刘宇, 严春华. 南水北调东线江苏受水区土地利用变化模拟及生态安全评价[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2017, 29(3): 163-170.
FANG Guohua, ZHOU Lei, WEN Xin, XUE Liuyu, YAN Chunhua. Land use change and ecological security evaluation of Jiangsu Province in the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project. REMOTE SENSING FOR LAND & RESOURCES, 2017, 29(3): 163-170.
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