Simulation of land use change in oasis of arid areas based on Landsat images from 1990 to 2019
SONG Qi1(), FENG Chunhui1, MA Ziqiang2, WANG Nan3, JI Wenjun4, PENG Jie1()
1. College of Agriculture, Tarim University, Alar 843300, China 2. Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China 3. College of Environmental and Resource Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China 4. College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
This study aims to explore the land use change and its future development trend in the Aral reclamation area, a typical artificial oasis in the arid region in northwest China and to provide a reference for the regulation and management of land use change in similar areas. After the multi-temporal synthesis of monthly images of each year, annual land use classification maps were obtained using the support vector machine method. Then, the land use change was analyzed from the aspects of area change, type transformation, and spatial dynamic change. Finally, the cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model was used to simulate the land use change in 2050 and 2080, and the sudden changes and their driving factors were explored using the cumulative departure method and the path analysis. The results of this study are as follows. During 1990—2019, the area of arable land, garden land, water bodies, and construction land in the Aral reclamation area showed an increasing trend. Among them, the arable land and garden land increased in area mainly due to the conversion of unused land outside the areas along the Tarim River. By 2080, the unused land in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the reclamation area will be gradually reclaimed. As a result, arable land, garden land, and construction land will significantly increase. The area of various types of land use in the Aral reclamation reached a turning point in 2005, showing a sharp increase in the area of arable land, garden land, and building land. This was mainly driven by total population, gross agricultural product, and cotton prices. It can be concluded that it is necessary to develop policies on the sustainable development of arable land, to strictly control the area of construction land, and to construct a reasonable land use structure in future land development and utilization.
宋奇, 冯春晖, 马自强, 王楠, 纪文君, 彭杰. 基于1990—2019年Landsat影像的干旱区绿洲土地利用变化与模拟[J]. 自然资源遥感, 2022, 34(1): 198-209.
SONG Qi, FENG Chunhui, MA Ziqiang, WANG Nan, JI Wenjun, PENG Jie. Simulation of land use change in oasis of arid areas based on Landsat images from 1990 to 2019. Remote Sensing for Natural Resources, 2022, 34(1): 198-209.
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2022, Vol. 34 
), 冯春晖1, 马自强2, 王楠3, 纪文君4, 彭杰1(
