Multi-simulation of spatial distribution of land use based on CLUE-S in Jinhe Watershed
SHI Yunxia1, WANG Fanxia2, WU Zhaopeng1,2
1. Department of Geography, Geography and Tourism Science Institute, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China;
2. Municipal Key Laboratory of Arid Lake Environment and Resource, Urumqi 830054, China
Based on CLUE-S model with digital land use images of 1972 and 1990, the authors detected the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in Jinhe watershed of Xinjiang from such biophysical and socioeconomic factors as railways, highways, canals, rivers, Aibi Lake and residents by using logistic stepwise regression method. With the analytical data obtained, the CLUE-S model suitable for modeling the study area was constructed in 2010. Also this result was validated by the Kappa index 0.82. Then two scenarios of land-use spatial allocation in Jinhe watershed in 2025, namely, "historical development trend scenario" and "ecology-priority scenario", were established through designing different restrictions on land-use transition when CLUE-S model was performed in GIS environment. Some conclusions have been reached: CLUE-S model is a powerful tool to simulate land-use spatial distribution trend in the future at the arid regional scale; In the historical development trend scenario, the ecological environment will be further deteriorated in 2025; In the ecology-priority scenario, the ecological environment will be optimized, and the land utilization rate will be raised too. The results obtained by the authors will be of use to sustainable development of land-use in arid oasis and other environmental fragile zones.
施云霞, 王范霞, 毋兆鹏. 基于CLUE_S模型的精河流域绿洲土地利用空间格局多情景模拟[J]. 国土资源遥感, 2016, 28(2): 154-160.
SHI Yunxia, WANG Fanxia, WU Zhaopeng. Multi-simulation of spatial distribution of land use based on CLUE-S in Jinhe Watershed. REMOTE SENSING FOR LAND & RESOURCES, 2016, 28(2): 154-160.
[1] 方秀琴,任立良,李琼芳.近40年老哈河流域土地利用变化监测与分析[J].国土资源遥感,2012(2):125-131.doi:10.6046/gtzyyg.2012.02.23. Fang X Q,Ren L L,Li Q F.The detection and analysis of land use change in the Laoha river basin during the past four decades[J].Remote Sensing for Land and Resources,2012(2):125-131.doi:10.6046/gtzyyg.2012.02.23.[2] 阎金凤,陈曦.基于GIS的干旱区LUCC分析和模拟方法探讨[J].干旱区地理,2003,26(2):185-191. Yan J F,Chen X.Analysis and stimulation method discussion on LUCC of arid region based on GIS[J].Arid Land Geography,2003,26(2):185-191.[3] 摆万奇,张永民,阎建忠,等.大渡河上游地区土地利用动态模拟分析[J].地理研究,2005,24(2):206-213. Bai W Q,Zhang Y M,Yan J Z,et al.Simulation of land use dynamics in the upper reaches of the Dadu river[J].Geographical Research,2005,24(2):206-213.[4] 张永民,赵士洞,Verburg P H.CLUE-S模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(3):310-318. Zhang Y M,Zhao S D,Verburg P H.CLUE-S and its application for simulating temporal and spatial change of land use in Naiman Banner[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2003,18(3):310-318.[5] 张华,张勃,孟宝,等.张掖市土地利用/覆盖变化模拟[J].遥感技术与应用,2004,19(5):359-363. Zhang H,Zhang B,Meng B,et al.Land use and land cover change modeling in Zhangye City[J].Remote Sensing Technology and Application,2004,19(5):359-363.[6] 刘庆凤,刘吉平,宋开山,等.基于CLUE-S模型的别拉洪河流域土地利用变化模拟[J].东北林业大学学报,2010,38(1):64-67,73. Liu Q F,Liu J P,Song K S,et al.Simulation on spatial pattern of land use change in Bielahong River Basin based on CLUE-S model[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2010,38(1):64-67,73.[7] 彭建,蔡运龙,Verburg P H.喀斯特山区土地利用/覆被变化情景模拟[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(7):64-70. Peng J,Cai Y L,Verburg P H.Simulation of land use/cover change scenarios in Karst mountain areas[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2007,23(7):64-70.[8] 蒙吉军,严汾,赵春红.大城市边缘区土地利用变化模拟研究——以北京市昌平区为例[J].应用基础与工程科学学报,2010,18(2):197-208. Meng J J,Yan F,Zhao C.Land use change simulation on the edge of metropolis:A case study of Changping District in Beijing[J].Journal of Basic Science and Engineering,2010,18(2):197-208.[9] 魏强.基于CLUE-S模型的托克逊县土地利用动态变化预测模拟研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2010. Wei Q.Simulation of Dynamic Change in Land Utilization Toksun County Based on CLUE-S Model[D].Urumqi:Xinjiang University,2010.[10] 梁友嘉,徐中民,钟方雷.基于SD和CLUE-S模型的张掖市甘州区土地利用情景分析[J].地理研究,2011,30(3):564-576. Liang Y J,Xu Z M,Zhong F L.Land use scenario analyses by based on system dynamic model and CLUE-S model at regional scale:A case study of Ganzhou district of Zhangye City[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(3):564-576.[11] 王新军,安沙舟.基于GIS与CLUE-S模型的土地利用规划研究[J].草业科学,2010,27(5):122-129. Wang X J,An S Z.Study on land use planning based on GIS and CLUE-S models[J].Pratacultural Science,2010,27(5):122-129.[12] Verburg P H.Manual for the CLUE-S Model[C].2004.[13] 冯仕超,高小红,顾娟,等.基于CLUE-S模型的湟水流域土地利用空间分布模拟[J].生态学报,2013,33(3):985-997. Feng S C,Gao X H,Gu J,et al.Land use spatial distribution modeling based on CLUE-S model in the Huangshui River Basin[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(3):985-997.[14] Pontius R G Jr.Quantification error versus location error in comparison of categorical maps[J].Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing,2000,66(8):1011-1016.