Spatial and temporal dynamics of drought in Xinjiang and its response to climate change
CHENG Jun1(), LI Yunzhen2, ZOU Yu3
1. College of Environment and Life Sciences, Weinan Normal University, Weinan 714099, China 2. School of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China 3. Sichuan Academy of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
This study aims to achieve the dynamic and continuous monitoring of drought in Xinjiang. Based on the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI), as well as the Sen’s slope trend analysis, R/S, and partial correlation analysis, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics, changing trends, and future sustainable state of TVDI and the influences of seasonal precipitation and temperature on TVDI in Xinjiang during the period from 2001 to 2020. The results are as follows. ① The northern Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains showed minimum TVDI values of less than 0.57, indicating light drought. The Tarim and Junggar basins showed TVDI values of greater than 0.86, indicating extraordinary drought. ② The TVDI values in spring decreased at a rate of 0.001 3/a. By contrast, the TVDI values in summer, autumn, and winter increased at a rate of 0.001 4/a, 0.002 0/a, and 0.000 8/a, respectively. Therefore, the increased amplitude of the TVDI values was the highest in autumn and the lowest in winter. ③ In the near future, the TVDI values in most regions of Xinjiang will increase in spring and winter, while the pixel quantity of most TVDI values will increase in summer and autumn. ④ The TVDI values were mainly negatively correlated with precipitation in spring and winter and were positively correlated with precipitation in summer and autumn. The TVDI values were mainly positively correlated with temperature in spring and were negatively correlated with temperature in autumn and winter. Moreover, the TVDI values in summer had a decreased correlation with temperature from west to east, with the correlation gradually changing from a negative to a positive correlation.
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